From yesterday’s high at $3940 the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 4.52% and is currently being traded at $3762. Looking at the 15 min chart you can see that yesterday’s high was the lower high from that of when the price of Bitcoin interacted with the horizontal resistance level at $3994 on 26th. This indicated that more downside should be expected as the price action pointed out a downtrend.
The price went on to hover around $3865 for the most of yesterday before finally crashing down with a massive 3.64% red candle in 15 mins time, but since the price fell a bit more and reached $3699 at its lowest it started recovering and is currently in an upward trajectory. If the price continues to go upward I would expect it to go and retest the horizontal resistance level at $3994 again.
Zooming out to the 30 min chart you can see that since I have started writing this post I have witnessed the increase of 6.61% measured to the highest point slightly above the mentioned horizontal resistance level. Is this the retest I was expecting to see still I don’t know but I believe so as I expected to see a B wave to the upside as the second corrective wave in an ABC correction that I am expecting to see to the downside after the previous move to the upside was an impulsive 12345.
So this upside move I would consider the B wave if the price manages to stay below the horizontal resistance at $3994. If the price continues its upward trajectory and manages to stay above the horizontal level for a few days I will reconsider my count.
Zooming out to the hourly chart you can see that the RSI indicator is signaling strong overbought conditions as its has risen from 42% to 78% in a matter of minutes. You can also see that the price has gone even more beyond the horizontal level but has now starting to pull back and we are seeing a wick on the hourly chart which indicates exhaustion.
The price has gone above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level which will now most likely serve as a support line of a minor range and has gone above the 50-hour moving average. This all indicates extreme bullishness but I would consider this one current green candle as a potential trend reversal just yet. Even so, I believe that much like it came up it will come down and that we are going to see the retest of the lowest price has been since the start of the year but if not at least it will pull back to 0.786 Fibonacci level if this last impulsive move was a start of an uptrend.
On the 4-hour chart, you can see that I have added two more waves to my primary count X and Z. My primary count is that this increase that happened was a retest of the previously broken support which is the bold black line and was a major support level. The wave structure looks like it was a WXY correction in the upward direction so I am expecting now a trend continuation, so I am expecting a lower low that would bring the price of Bitcoin to $2926 which is the most significant horizontal support level so far.
As we are in a Holiday season and the new years eve is ahead I believe we are going to see this expected down move and more sideways action will occur before the final drop to $2926 after which we are going to see some notable recovery.
If this current increase goes up to the bold black line again I get rejected there and heads downwards again I would consider that the price is now heading down to the target level as another impulsive move to the downside started. In that case, the projection would look like this:
The price of Bitcoin is in a tough spot right now and I don’t believe that it’s getting out off it sooner than the second half of January. The Holiday season and the depression that comes after it usually impact the market which is why I believe that in itself may serve as a catalyst for the further declines that I am expecting but we are yet to see what happens.