From yesterday’s open at $5040, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 5.08% measured to the highest point the price has been which is at $5296.7 around which it is currently sitting.

Bitcoin Price BTC

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Bitcoin Analysis BTC/USD

On the 15 min chart, we can see that the price came up inside the territory of the ascending channel and managed to go above the interrupter line which is the significant resistance level from the still unconfirmed ascending channel of a higher degree.

The momentum has been stopped out again by the resistance level of the current ascending structure which has been labeled as a B wave from an ABC correction of a higher degree.

Looking at the structure from 12th of April there is a clear indication that is corrective and the most significant validation is the downside movement seen on 15th of April labeled as the ABC when the price of Bitcoin fell from $5216.5 to $5032.

This was a decrease of 3.54% but its amount is not important for the validation but instead the fact that the price fell below the B wave which would have been the 2nd wave out of the next starting impulse wave.

As the price fell below what could have been the wave 2 of a five-wave move the scenario got invalidated.

This implies that the following structure is also part of the same correction and is most likely the third ABC correction of a lower degree which in conjunction with the prior two constitute a higher degree three-wave B.

We are now most likely seeing the end of the lower degree C wave as I have counted 5 sub-waves and in particular considering that the price interacted with the current resistance and started getting rejected.

This is why now I would be expecting a move to the downside which would be the C wave of a higher degree.

On the hourly chart, you can see the significance behind the currently interacted level for this structure inside whose territory the price action has bounced from 12th of April.

The price is above the significant resistance level of a higher degree and is the lower interrupted ascending trendline that has been presumed to be the resistance point of the ascending channel on a higher time-frame. This current cluster is has been formed due to the price position between the higher degree resistance point which serves as a support and the currently found resistance.

As a breakout is soon to happen I would be expecting a one to the downside below the ascending trendlines and on to the $4800 zone where the horizontal support level could stop the price anywhere in between.

This expected downside movement would be the last wave from the 4th wave of a Minute count as three consecutive corrections would have developed which means that after the end of this correctional movement another increase would be expected as the 5th wave out of the Minute five-wave impulse should develop.

We could see further prolongation of the current correctional structure with more sideways action before we see a downfall to the $4800 zone but overall things are still looking bullish.

Zooming out on to the daily chart you can see my long-term projection which is still valid. According to my count, this upside movement is the Y wave from the WXY correction from 15th of December and is the 4th wave from a higher degree impulse wave to the downside.

This means that after this increase ends a final 5th wave to the downside should develop which is set to push the price below $3200 zone which was the previous bear market low.

 

As the 1st wave ends around $6250 area it is considered the invalidation level because according to the rules of the Elliott Wave theory, wave 4 cannot enter the territory of the wave 2.

This is why I would be expecting another and final higher high to around $6200 which would retest the broken horizontal support after which another downside move would start.

Market sentiment

Bitcoin’s hourly chart technical are signaling a buy.

Pivot points

  • S3 4068.9
  • S2 4622.2
  • S1 4862.9
  • P 5175.5
  • R1 5416.2
  • R2 5728.8
  • R3 6282.1

Conclusion

The price of Bitcoin has increased by around 5% in the last 24 hours but has encountered significant resistance at the current price action structure’s upper outline.

As the wave structure implies this movement was the part of the same correctional structure from 12th of April and is most likely to end with another downside movement to the $4800 zone but after the expected retracement another run up would most likely occur with the price of Bitcoin potentially reaching $6200.

Ultimately the bullish action seen from 15th of December is still corrective according to my count which is why after it ends I would be expecting another lower low for the bear market which is below $3200.


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Posted by Nikola Lazić

Nikola holds a bachelor degree in Sociology, which gives him an edge as a financial markets analyst, i.e., to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently, his preferred analytical tools are Elliot applications, combined with Fibonacci cluster formations. He started learning more about financial markets back in 2015 and is now a full-time trader.As a crypto expert, Nikola´s approach to the future of the industry favors a more decentralized market that falls in line with a new “anarchic” capitalism trend. His analysis have been praised by some of the most influential people in the cryptocurrency scene, such as Jeff Berwick (founder of The Dollar Vigilante Newsletter), Vit Jedlicka (the president of Liberland), as well as other relevant peers.


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2 Comments

  1. Avatar

    But why does it need to? According to Mcafee it’s mathematically impossible to be below $1 million …

    Reply

  2. Avatar

    The price doesn’t need to do anything, but regarding my projection, it needs to go above $6250 for the bearish scenario go get invalidated which could mean that the bear market has ended.

    Reply

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