The cryptocurrency market cap has decreased from yesterday’s open by approximately 2.9% to its lowest point today but has started increasing again since and is currently sitting around the levels of yesterday’s open again.

The evaluation is on the rise but has come up to the significant descending trendline which serves as resistance which is why we are seeing the momentum slowing down.

Bitcoin Price BTC

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The market is mostly in green with an insignificant average percentage of change in the last 24 hours as its ranging around 0.9%.

The biggest movers are in green like TrueChain with an increase of 23.51%, Crypto.com Chain with 16.47% and VestChain with an increase of 14.02%. Out of those in red, the biggest loser is ABBC Coin which decreased by 17.66% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s market dominance is still hovering around 50.8%


Bitcoin Analysis BTC/USD

From yesterday’s open at $5317.3 the price of Bitcoin has decreased by 2.64% at first as it came down to $5177.1 at its lowest point today but has since then increased again and came up to $5293.9 at on today’s high.

The price is currently being traded slightly lower, at $5276 but is still in an upward trajectory.

On the 15-min chart, we can see that the price of Bitcoin came up again to its significant horizontal resistance level on yesterday’s high when the interaction has been made. The level is significant as its the prior high level and is most likely serving as strong resistance as the impulsive upswing with strong momentum has been stopped out there.

The price attempted to surpass the level two times after the first ABC retracement but has failed to do so which is why it has created a cluster between it and the support offered by the still unconfirmed lower resistance line of the ascending channel of a higher degree.

After the first ABC ended an ascending channel was developed as the price continued increasing but since the increase looks corrective, judging by the wave structure, and hasn’t managed to pull the price above the significant resistance I think that it is the second corrective structure after the price of Bitcoin exponentially increased.

The ascending channel got broken from the downside on Monday, but the price found support on the unconfirmed lower resistance of the ascending channel of a higher degree. From there another attempt has been made but ended as a lower high which indicates that the buyers are starting to lose traction.

Today we have seen a minor breakout to the upside from the last unconfirmed structure which is a symmetrical triangle, but the price hasn’t come up to the horizontal resistance level yet.

Another interaction would be expected as the price is still in an upward trajectory but I believe that it is going to end as another rejection that is set to push the price back down below its current support level and potentially below the 1.618 Fibonacci level.

As the previous minor ascending channel has been labeled as a WXY correction the movement that followed could be its prolongation in which case the current upside movement would be its final wave Z.

The now expected downside movement would be a third correctional structure, most likely another ABC Zigzag which would in conjunction with the previous two correctional structures constitute a higher degree three-wave correction.

If this occurs I would be expecting to see the price of Bitcoin below $5000 again.

Zooming out on to the 4-hour chart, we can see that from 15th of December when the price of Bitcoin experienced an impulse increase until now we have seen the development of a three-wave structure. This structure is most likely going to end on the third wave as it is correctional according to my count and is likely to end after two more waves of a Minor degree, which is why now I would be expecting a movement to the downside as the 4th wave should develop after which another higher high could be made to some of the significant resistance levels.

This structure has been seen many times since the start of the bear market and below I have outlined some of the most similar once.

This is why I think that after the current five-wave impulse to the upside ends we are to see a trend continuation to the downside as this impulsive move is the third wave of the correctional structure.

Market sentiment

Bitcoin is in the buy zone overall but the oscillators are signaling neutral.

Pivot points

S3 3638.7
S2 4101.5
S1 4387.4
P 4850.2
R1 5313.0
R2 5598.9


The price of Bitcoin has continued increasing but with slow momentum and as it came up to the significant resistance levels a downfall is now likely.

This downfall would be another retracement before a final higher high according to my count and the price could reach $6200 area at its furthest before the impulsive move ends.

If it does end there the most significant support level would get retested for resistance, which was the horizontal support from which the price of Bitcoin broke down with strong momentum.

Looking at the 2014 correction I have pointed out the most likely stage in which we are in and as you can see the three-wave correction came up for interaction with the horizontal support level prior to the breakout which was retested and ended as a rejection, causing the price to move more to the downside for another low, which I think its going to happen now as well.

This means that the price of Bitcoin is projected to go significantly lower then the current levels before we see the end of the bear market, but if the price continues increasing past $6200-6500 area I would consider to invalidate my projection.

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Posted by Nikola Lazić

Nikola holds a bachelor degree in Sociology, which gives him an edge as a financial markets analyst, i.e., to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently, his preferred analytical tools are Elliot applications, combined with Fibonacci cluster formations. He started learning more about financial markets back in 2015 and is now a full-time trader.As a crypto expert, Nikola´s approach to the future of the industry favors a more decentralized market that falls in line with a new “anarchic” capitalism trend. His analysis have been praised by some of the most influential people in the cryptocurrency scene, such as Jeff Berwick (founder of The Dollar Vigilante Newsletter), Vit Jedlicka (the president of Liberland), as well as other relevant peers.

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