Key Takeaways
- Shares of AppLovin rose 2.21% in Wednesday’s premarket session to $406.80, offering some relief following a 40.93% decline year to date.
- The uptick coincided with a broader technology sector rally, fueled by decreasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East region.
- Research from Evercore ISI involving 10 interviews with user acquisition professionals suggests the stock’s downturn doesn’t reflect actual business performance.
- 80% of industry contacts interviewed anticipate AppLovin will capture a larger portion of their UA spending within the next 6-12 months.
- From a technical standpoint, APP remains challenged—currently 26.9% under its 100-day moving average, RSI at 40.80, and negative MACD readings.
AppLovin shares demonstrated modest strength during Wednesday’s premarket hours, climbing 2.21% to reach $406.80 following a challenging period that saw the stock tumble approximately 41% from the beginning of 2025.
The upward movement aligned with a broader technology sector resurgence, as Nasdaq futures advanced 1.10% during early Wednesday trading while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.80%. Market sentiment strengthened on indications that Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions might be subsiding.
President Donald Trump indicated the United States could conclude its military operations in the area “within two or three weeks.” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian also expressed willingness to cease hostilities, contingent upon receiving security assurances. The White House announced Trump would deliver a national address at 9:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Regarding monetary policy, markets remained calm. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a 99.5% probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates in April. Economist Jeremy Siegel recommended investors adopt a defensive posture until energy markets stabilize.
Field Research from Evercore Paints Optimistic Picture
Notwithstanding the stock’s substantial decline, Evercore ISI analyst Robert Coolbrith concluded the selloff appears excessive based on industry feedback.
During the period spanning March 18 through March 30, Evercore conducted 10 comprehensive interviews with user acquisition professionals—key decision makers representing game publishers, developers, and gaming-focused agencies throughout North America, Europe, and the MENA region. These contacts collectively oversee approximately $1.9 billion in annual user acquisition expenditure.
Among the 10 industry professionals interviewed, eight indicated expectations that AppLovin will increase its portion of their UA budgets during the next 6-12 months. Three of these eight predicted wallet share increases ranging from 3 to 5 percentage points. Two additional respondents stated AppLovin’s budget allocation should already be 10-15 points higher based purely on return on advertiser spend metrics.
Multiple contacts referenced late Q4 product modifications as beneficial developments. One highlighted adjustments to retargeting windows, while three others identified “creative clustering” as a significant improvement.
Recent Platform Updates Continue Influencing Budget Decisions
Product updates implemented earlier in 2025 continue affecting budget allocation decisions. Half of the interviewed contacts cited a campaign objective transition from CPI to CPM as enhancing budget fulfillment and campaign expandability. Four mentioned the shift from D7 to D28 optimization as an ongoing advantage. Two of these contacts expressed interest in seeing AppLovin extend the optimization window to D60.
Coolbrith maintained his Outperform rating alongside a $750 price objective for the stock.
Chart Analysis Shows Continued Weakness
From a technical perspective, APP faces significant challenges. The equity trades 11.2% beneath its 20-day moving average and 26.9% under its 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index registers 40.80—neutral territory with a slight bearish bias. The MACD indicator reads -19.09 and continues trading below its signal line.
APP’s 52-week trading range extends from $200.50 to $745.61. Critical resistance emerges at $473.50, while support is established at $366.50. Despite the year-to-date downturn, the stock has gained 40.79% over the trailing 12-month period.
Coolbrith’s $750 price objective implies an 84% upside potential from Wednesday’s premarket trading level.
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