TLDR
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million due to potential Fed yield curve control
- Federal Reserve nominee Stephen Miran confirmed by narrow 48-47 Senate vote
- Tether minted $1 billion USDT as market anticipates Fed rate cuts
- New whale wallet accumulated 5,817 Bitcoin (worth $680 million)
- Money market funds at record $7.5 trillion waiting for investment opportunities
Bitcoin Price Prediction Ties to Fed’s “Third Mandate”
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has made a striking prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million, linking this forecast to recent developments at the Federal Reserve. This comes as Stephen Miran was confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board by a narrow 48-47 Senate vote on September 16, 2025.
Hayes believes the Fed is preparing to implement yield curve control (YCC) as part of what some are calling a “third mandate.” This would be in addition to the Fed’s existing responsibilities of maintaining price stability and maximum employment.
With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed's "third mandate" which is essentially yield curve control. LFG!
YCC -> $BTC = $1m pic.twitter.com/jlPQZJ0cHm
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 16, 2025
The crypto market appears to be positioning for a major move. Bitcoin has maintained support above $116,000 while showing 5.1% gains over the past week. The cryptocurrency sits just 5.6% below its all-time high of $124,457 set on August 14.
Market watchers have noted several indicators supporting a bullish outlook. Tether recently minted $1 billion in USDT, providing potential liquidity for crypto exchanges. This move suggests preparation for increased market activity.
On-chain data reveals changing dynamics in Bitcoin ownership. A newly created wallet accumulated 5,817 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $680 million. This transaction indicates institutional-level interest rather than retail investment.
Understanding Yield Curve Control
Hayes’ prediction centers on the concept of yield curve control, which represents a more aggressive form of monetary policy than traditional rate cuts. While conventional policy focuses on setting overnight lending rates, YCC involves the Federal Reserve setting explicit targets for long-term interest rates.
To enforce these targets, the Fed would purchase government bonds in quantities sufficient to maintain rates below specified thresholds. This approach would hold down borrowing costs across the economy regardless of bond market sentiment.
The implications could be far-reaching. Such a policy would likely generate substantially more liquidity than previous quantitative easing programs. Risk assets including stocks, Bitcoin, and gold could respond with major price increases.
Hayes sees this scenario unfolding due to mounting pressures in the financial system. The combination of high debt levels, dwindling bond buyers, and fiscal challenges may eventually force the Fed’s hand, triggering the implementation of YCC.
Some macro analysts describe this as a potential “doom loop.” As inflation persists and government deficits grow, central banks may have no choice but to increase money printing. With fewer parties willing to purchase debt, especially at negative real rates, the Federal Reserve could become the primary buyer of last resort.
According to Hayes, this scenario would drive Bitcoin to previously unimaginable price levels as governments dilute currency values and investors seek alternative stores of value.
The enormous pool of capital sitting in money market funds could further accelerate this trend. These funds have reached a record $7.5 trillion, representing potential investment capital that could flow into risk assets when interest rates decline.
Miran’s confirmation is viewed as particularly relevant by crypto observers because of his previous positive comments about Bitcoin. In a 2023 post, he wrote “Bitcoin fixes this,” suggesting the cryptocurrency could address problems within the traditional financial system.
The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns a 96% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut, indicating market consensus around loosening monetary policy. Combined with U.S. fiscal expansion and growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency, these factors create a macro environment that could support Hayes’ optimistic outlook.
While the timeframe for reaching such extraordinary price levels remains unclear, Hayes suggests that pressure will build until a breaking point forces dramatic policy changes. The ongoing accumulation by whale wallets and declining exchange reserves suggest institutional positioning is already underway.
As of writing, Bitcoin trades above $117,000, having gained 5.9% over the past two weeks. Market participants are closely watching for signs of Fed policy shifts that could trigger the next major move in cryptocurrency markets.
