TLDR
- Analyst gives Bitcoin a 70% chance of hitting fresh all-time highs within two weeks
- Bitcoin currently trading around $117,000 after 8.5% rise this month
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9
- Short-Term Holder MVRV Z-Scores near zero, indicating market is neither overheated nor oversold
- Key price range is $115,000-$120,000 with potential upside to $125,000-$130,000
Bitcoin is showing strong potential for a rally toward new all-time highs, according to recent market analysis. Currently trading at around $117,000, Bitcoin has gained 8.5% this month, climbing from $107,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes there’s a 70% chance that Bitcoin will push toward fresh all-time highs within the next two weeks. This optimistic outlook is based on several market indicators that suggest favorable conditions for continued growth.
BTC futures are trading at a premium to spot, with the basis consistently positive and the 7-day above the 30-day, indicating a bullish regime. Overheat/divergence signals appeared ahead of the FOMC, a short-term overheating (basis rising on light volume) which suggests the move… pic.twitter.com/J7hMf3Xb2u
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 18, 2025
The Short-Term Holder MVRV Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day cohorts are hovering near zero, indicating that the market is neither overheated nor oversold. With Bitcoin trading just above the Short-Term Holder realized price, the setup suggests a one-to-two-week consolidation phase could precede a breakout.
Derivatives data further reinforces this positive outlook. Bitcoin futures are trading at a consistent premium to spot, with the seven-day basis running above the 30-day, a structure typically linked with bullish trends.
However, Adler Jr. noted that minor overheating signals appeared ahead of the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event, where cost basis rose on light volume, suggesting some late-stage positioning.
Institutional Demand Strengthens Bitcoin’s Position
Institutional demand remains a firm anchor for Bitcoin’s price. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9, pushing activity decisively into positive territory.
These inflows support Bitcoin’s price as technical indicators align, leading traders to brace for what could be a defining stretch in Bitcoin’s next bullish leg.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut has intensified discussions about Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Risky assets underwent a rapid repricing as a result of the cut and the Fed’s dovish forward guidance.
In cryptocurrency markets, this manifested as increased spot volumes, growing futures open interest, and revived demand for spot ETFs. Although the macro move reduced some short-term policy risk, it left investors wondering if the Fed will cut rates further this year.
Price Scenarios and Market Conditions
Bitcoin’s intraday behavior represents a tight but marginally upward session, with highs and lows grouped in the $116,000-$118,000 range and 24-hour spot volume higher than the previous week.
On-chain flows reveal large net withdrawals from centralized exchanges during September, reducing the amount of available spot supply. Derivatives measures and exchange order flow indicate traders are becoming more leveraged into directional bets.
The key range for Bitcoin in the immediate term is $115,000-$120,000. Traders are watching for two possible scenarios: a persistent rise over $120,000, propelled by ongoing ETF inflows and low exchange liquidity, could push the market to reach targets in the $125,000-$130,000 range in the upcoming weeks.
Alternatively, a failure to maintain the $115,000 level could trigger a decline toward $110,000 and potentially the $104,000-$100,000 range in a more severe unwind.
Despite the bullish outlook, there are risks to consider. Bitcoin might face pressure if profit-taking occurs or if there’s an unexpected spike in Treasury yields or USD strength. September has historically been a bearish month for cryptocurrencies, which adds weight to potential pullback scenarios.
However, as long as exchange withdrawals and ETF flows remain strong, the market currently leans neutral to optimistic with an upside volatility skew. The most recent data from ETF flows, exchange supply measures, and the Fed’s September 17 comments all support these scenario projections.
Bitcoin’s path forward may depend on whether it secures a daily close above $117,500, which would confirm a break of structure and sharply reduce the odds of a dip below $114,000.
