TLDR
- Tom Lee of Fundstrat maintains $250K Bitcoin price target for 2025
- Bitcoin hit all-time high of $123,400 in July before 7% correction to $114,000
- Exchange outflows continue since April, suggesting strong accumulation
- NVT ratio declined 32%, indicating better alignment between network value and transaction volume
- Miners holding lowest OTC balances in years, showing reluctance to sell at current prices
Bitcoin’s price journey in 2025 continues to captivate the crypto market, with prominent analysts maintaining bullish outlooks despite recent corrections. After reaching an all-time high of $123,400 in July, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback of approximately 7%, trading around $114,000 in early August.
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of BitMine, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects for the remainder of 2025. In a recent interview on the Coin Stories podcast, Lee reaffirmed his $250,000 price target for Bitcoin this year, stating, “I think Bitcoin should really build upon this 120 before the end of the year; 200,000, maybe, 250.”
My brand new interview with Tom Lee @fundstrat
We discuss his bullish outlook on Bitcoin (new ATH this fall?), the national debt, Fed policy, corporate treasury boom, the U.S. acquiring Bitcoin and more.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Timecodes:
00:00 Tom… pic.twitter.com/Poc3R6OKHh— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) August 5, 2025
Lee’s bullish stance comes at a time when some analysts are adopting more cautious outlooks. With less than five months left in 2025, firms like Bernstein and Standard Chartered have set their year-end targets at $200,000, while 10x Research’s Markus Thielen projects a more conservative $160,000.
The recent price volatility has also affected market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shifted from a “Greed” score of 60 to a “Neutral” score of 54, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors.
On-Chain Metrics Show Strength
Despite the correction, several on-chain metrics suggest underlying strength in the Bitcoin network. On August 5, Bitcoin recorded $21.49 million in exchange outflows, continuing a trend of negative netflows since mid-April. This persistent movement of coins off exchanges typically indicates accumulation by long-term holders.
The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has declined by over 32%, settling at 29.2. This drop suggests that Bitcoin’s current valuation is increasingly justified by actual on-chain utility rather than pure speculation.
Another bullish signal comes from miner behavior. Over-the-counter (OTC) balances from miners have fallen to just 147,500 BTC, their lowest level in years. This reluctance to sell at current prices often precedes price increases, as it reduces selling pressure in the market.
Seasonal Factors May Boost Price
Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in the fourth quarter of the year. If this seasonal pattern holds true for 2025, it could provide additional momentum for price growth.
Lee mentioned that market skepticism is actually a positive sign.
“It’s a sign that there is still price discovery underway. Because if people were all bullish, in the public realm, when everyone is bullish, then it’s probably in the price,” he explained.
He added, “When there is plenty of skepticism and reasons to be skeptical, it allows markets to have positive surprise.”
Some industry executives, including Lee, believe that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle may be ending due to increased institutional interest. However, crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggests that if Bitcoin follows the 2020 pattern, the market could peak in October, which would be 550 days after the April 2024 halving event.
Binance’s stablecoin reserves remain elevated, indicating substantial capital waiting on the sidelines that could re-enter the market. This potential buying power, combined with technical and fundamental factors, creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin’s continued growth.
Market sentiment for Bitcoin has recently turned positive, with weighted sentiment reaching 0.186 after months of volatility. This cautious optimism reflects a market that is gradually rebuilding confidence.
For Bitcoin to reach the ambitious price targets set by analysts like Tom Lee, renewed demand must complement the current supply constraints. If Q4 seasonality triggers increased buying activity, Bitcoin could indeed resume its journey toward the $200,000-$250,000 range.
Lee’s long-term outlook remains extremely bullish, as he forecasts that Bitcoin should reach $1 million “over time.”
The next few months will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can overcome current resistance levels and achieve new price milestones before the end of 2025.
