TLDR
- Bitcoin is closing September with a 4.5% gain, a historically bullish signal for Q4
- Historical data shows green Septembers precede Q4 returns averaging 53%
- Spot demand is strengthening, led by US investors through Coinbase
- Technical indicators show Bitcoin consolidating near $114,000 after a breakout
- Massachusetts lawmakers considering allowing 10% of state stabilization fund in Bitcoin
Bitcoin is finishing September with a positive 4.5% gain, closing around $113,100. This rare green September could be setting the stage for a powerful Q4 rally, based on historical patterns that have proven reliable in previous market cycles.
Looking at past data, when Bitcoin closed September in positive territory during 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, the following Q4 periods produced average returns exceeding 53%.
October has traditionally been the strongest month of this period, with average returns of 21.8%, while November follows with 10.8% gains. December has been more variable, with an average decline of 3.2%.
This seasonal pattern suggests Bitcoin could potentially reach the $170,000 region before year-end if similar percentage gains materialize from current price levels.
Bitcoin is currently trading above $110,000, positioning it well for what could be another decisive final quarter.
Onchain Metrics Turn Bullish
Technical indicators are supporting the optimistic outlook. The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on a 90-day basis turned positive on Monday for the first time since July 14.
This metric tracks the difference between market buy and market sell volumes. A positive reading indicates buying pressure now outweighs selling activity, typically a bullish signal for price action.
At the same time, the Coinbase premium index shows consistent accumulation by US investors. Data reveals concentrated clusters of buying activity throughout the third quarter.
This level of aggressive spot demand hasn’t been observed since early July. The alignment of these metrics reinforces the view that buying momentum is building in the market.
Community Debates and Institutional Interest
The Bitcoin community is currently divided over the upcoming Bitcoin Core v30 release, which proposes removing the long-standing 80-byte OP_RETURN data limit.
This change would allow larger non-financial data storage directly on the blockchain, sparking debate about Bitcoin’s fundamental purpose.
Critics argue this contradicts Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision of Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer currency. Advocates see new opportunities for applications built on Bitcoin’s base layer.
Meanwhile, billionaire investor Tim Draper continues his bullish stance, predicting retailers will eventually only accept Bitcoin. Draper has backed his conviction with investments in crypto infrastructure companies like Coinbase and Robinhood.
On the institutional front, Massachusetts lawmakers are considering legislation that would permit up to 10% of the state’s stabilization fund to be allocated to Bitcoin reserves.
Though the bill faces challenges in a Democrat-controlled legislature, it represents growing recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset at the state level, following similar moves in Texas and New Hampshire.
Bitcoin’s current technical outlook shows consolidation near $114,154 after breaking out from a descending channel that defined September’s earlier pullback.
The price is now resting just below resistance at $114,741, with support at $112,808 from the 100-period Simple Moving Average.
The Relative Strength Index has cooled to 60 from previously overbought levels near 80, indicating a healthy reset while maintaining the overall bullish structure.
Recent price action resembles an ascending triangle, which often precedes continued upward movement after strong rallies.
If Bitcoin maintains its pattern of higher lows, a breakthrough above $114,741 could drive prices toward $116,150 and potentially to the September peak of $117,850.
Should momentum persist, a test of the $120,000 level becomes possible. Conversely, a drop below $113,000 would expose lower support levels at $112,600 and $111,680.
For traders, long positions appear favorable on a confirmed breakout above $114,700, with key targets at $116,150 and $117,850.
With the historically bullish “Uptober” period beginning and technical signals aligning, Bitcoin’s potential move higher could spark broader rallies across the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $114,285, showing a minor 0.16% daily decline, with 24-hour trading volume of $58.2 billion.
