TLDR
- Peter Brandt believes there is a 30 percent chance that Bitcoin has already peaked in the current cycle.
- He expects Bitcoin to possibly decline to a range between $60,000 and $70,000 by November 2026.
- Brandt still holds a long-term bullish view and forecasts a future rally to $500,000 in the next bull market.
- Bitcoin recently traded below $117,500 after showing earlier gains in the same trading session.
- Analyst Colin Talks Crypto shared a model suggesting the cycle could peak around December 2025.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin may have already reached its peak for the ongoing cycle. In a recent statement, he said there is a 30% chance that Bitcoin hit its highest point. His comment came as the price of Bitcoin dipped below $117,500.
Brandt noted that if the peak has occurred, the next significant move could take the price down further. He forecasts a possible drop to between $60,000 and $70,000 by late 2026. This scenario would precede what he believes could be a major rally to $500,000.
Bitcoin Falls Below $117,500 as Brandt Updates Market Outlook
Bitcoin traded at $117,283 at the time of writing, reflecting a 0.94% decline in the past 24 hours. During earlier trading, Bitcoin saw sharp gains but later fell below $117,200 before showing slight recovery. Over the last week, Bitcoin slipped 0.20% and dropped 0.42% over the past 30 days.
Despite recent short-term losses, Bitcoin price has gained 20.17% in the last six months. It has also risen 25.64% since the beginning of the year. These figures show a mixed market sentiment amid longer-term upward momentum.
Peter Brandt’s analysis appears more cautious than other market models. However, he remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term value. “I consider Bitcoin the ultimate store of value,” Brandt wrote in his post.
I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle. Next stop then back to $60k to $70k by Nov 2026, then next bull thrust to $500k https://t.co/xPujqCjp9e
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 15, 2025
Market Cycle Model Suggests Peak Could Still Be Ahead
Brandt responded to a Bitcoin cycle model posted by analyst Colin Talks Crypto. The model tracks price cycles and shows each market phase extending longer than the last. According to it, the current cycle began in November 2022 after the previous bottom.
The chart predicts this cycle will last 37 months, pointing to a possible top in December 2025. Previous peaks occurred 24, 28, and 33 months after their cycle lows. If the model holds, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Brandt acknowledged this model but maintained his 30% chance assessment for a completed peak. He still expects long-term bullish movement beyond the current cycle.
