Bitcoin, Trump, and China: Top Analyst Reveals the Macro Trifecta Shaping the Next Rally

TLDR:

Table of Contents

Trump’s policies may strengthen the dollar and tighten global liquidity conditions.
China’s credit slowdown is redirecting capital toward U.S. and digital markets.
Bitcoin could rebound once real rates peak and liquidity cycles realign.
Strategic patience may outperform as the next market cycle gradually forms.

Top market analyst Bull Theory’s latest analysis explores how political and economic shifts could redefine global liquidity and asset performance.

The thread outlines why Trump’s expected policy direction, China’s slowing credit cycle, and broader monetary dynamics may set the stage for a volatile but strategic investment window.

Trump’s Return and the Liquidity Equation

According to Bull Theory, a Trump victory could mark a structural change in global capital flows.

His administration may favor stronger U.S. dollar policies and capital repatriation, indirectly tightening liquidity across emerging markets. This shift could pressure risk assets initially, but later drive cyclical capital rotation into U.S. equities and digital assets.

The analysis notes that Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs could reignite tensions with China, reinforcing a “deglobalization premium.” In this scenario, U.S. industries might attract domestic investment, while export-driven economies such as China could face tightening credit conditions.

Bull Theory observes that China’s financial tightening remains one of the most critical macro forces. The country’s attempt to stabilize its property sector and currency has constrained liquidity, affecting global demand for commodities and growth-linked assets.

This dynamic, the analysis adds, may continue to cap performance across Asian markets while fueling capital migration toward the U.S. and digital assets. The interplay between China’s slowdown and U.S. policy tightening could define risk allocation for the coming quarters.

CHINA IS PLAYING WITH TRUMP’S PATIENCE.

AND IT’S WORKING.👇

Over the past few weeks, reports suggest that China is using the U.S. stock market as a negotiation weapon.

They’ve know something crucial about Trump, he personally measures his presidency’s success by how high the… pic.twitter.com/54VYZJvnCB

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 16, 2025

The Bitcoin and Crypto Correlation

Crypto markets, Bull Theory suggests, are positioned at a unique intersection of macro uncertainty and structural adoption.

Liquidity shifts driven by U.S. fiscal tightening and Asian credit contraction may initially suppress prices. However, once real rates peak, Bitcoin and high-beta crypto assets could rebound sharply.

The analysis points out that capital efficiency will become a decisive factor in the next phase. Institutional investors are likely to re-enter through vehicles like spot BTC ETFs once volatility normalizes and policy clarity returns.

Bull Theory’s outlook emphasizes a strategy built around patience and precision rather than early bullish exposure. The framework suggests that the true breakout may occur once liquidity cycles align, potentially when China reopens credit lines and U.S. monetary policy pivots.

Until then, maintaining flexibility, managing leverage, and focusing on assets with intrinsic cash flow or decentralized value could offer resilience. For crypto investors, the coming months may present both risk and rare accumulation opportunities before broader liquidity returns.

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