Quick Summary
- Oppenheimer raised Blackstone (BX) to “Outperform” from “Market Perform,” assigning a $154 price objective that suggests approximately 34% potential upside from its recent close around $114.86.
- Analyst Chris Kotowski emphasized BX’s impressive performance history dating back to 2009, describing its real estate platform as industry-leading.
- The firm exceeded fourth-quarter expectations with earnings per share of $1.75 versus the $1.54 consensus, while revenue reached $4.36B — representing a 41.4% year-over-year increase.
- Significant shareholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone acquired approximately 2.87M shares worth $75M in mid-March, expanding its position by 18.2%.
- Shares currently trade around $114.86, substantially below the 12-month peak of $190.09, while the Street’s average price objective stands at $155.27.
Blackstone (BX) shares climbed 1.5% during Monday’s opening session following Oppenheimer’s decision to raise its rating on the alternative investment giant to “Outperform,” arguing that the recent price decline presents an opportunity.
Chris Kotowski, the analyst behind the upgrade, observed that BX has endured significant selling pressure despite delivering what he characterized as “exceptional results.” His $154 price objective represents roughly 34% above Monday’s opening level of $114.86.
Having followed Blackstone since 2009, Kotowski highlighted the company’s real estate division as a particular area of strength. He characterized it as unmatched in the industry, with Brookfield ranking as the closest competitor.
Both real estate and private credit sectors have experienced investor skepticism recently. However, Oppenheimer believes the market’s concerns regarding these segments are exaggerated.
“The present market dislocation presents investors with an opportunity to acquire the sector’s leading franchise at a compelling price,” Kotowski stated.
He additionally emphasized BX’s “capital light” business structure as a significant advantage. Since the firm doesn’t maintain a controlling interest in an insurance subsidiary or carry substantial balance sheet investments, virtually all profits are distributed to shareholders.
Impressive Quarterly Performance
Blackstone’s latest financial results provided support for the rating increase. The firm delivered fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.75, surpassing the Street’s $1.54 projection by $0.21.
Quarterly revenue totaled $4.36B, significantly exceeding the anticipated $3.69B and marking a 41.4% climb compared to the prior-year period. The company also achieved a net profit margin of 20.89% along with a 22.17% return on equity.
Wall Street analysts are currently projecting full-year earnings per share of $5.87 for the fiscal year.
Trading Activity and Street Sentiment
Regarding insider transactions, major stakeholder Holdings IV GP Mana Blackstone purchased approximately 2.87 million shares on March 20th at a mean price of $26.15 each, representing a roughly $75 million investment. This transaction increased their holdings by 18.2%, pushing their total stake above 18.6 million shares.
In a separate transaction, BX Buzz ML-1 GP LLC divested 7.48 million shares on March 17th — reducing their stake by 99.66% — at an average of $3.51 per share.
Institutional stakeholders continue to control approximately 70% of the company’s outstanding shares.
Analyst opinions on BX remain divided across Wall Street. TD Cowen lowered its price objective from $164 to $141 while maintaining a “buy” stance. Evercore decreased its target from $175 to $170, keeping an “outperform” rating. Barclays established a $124 target with an “equal weight” designation. JPMorgan reduced its objective to $122 with a “neutral” rating.
Presently, eleven analysts assign BX a buy recommendation, while another eleven rate it as hold. The consensus price target among this group averages $155.27 — reflecting a “Moderate Buy” outlook.
The stock is currently changing hands near its 52-week floor of $101.73, having retreated considerably from its 12-month peak of $190.09. The 50-day simple moving average sits at $117.75, while the 200-day moving average stands at $141.01.
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