TLDR
- Brent crude oil exploded beyond $115 per barrel, climbing nearly 60% throughout March following Houthi attacks on Israel backed by Iran
- Bitcoin slid to $64,991, marking a one-month low, before rallying back to $67,347 with a 1.2% gain
- Gold prices declined more than 13% in March despite a modest 0.9% uptick, pressured by dollar strength and surging oil
- Markets across Asia tumbled, with Japan’s Nikkei shedding 2.8% and South Korea’s Kospi plunging 3%
- Trump indicated an Iran agreement “could be soon,” though Tehran rebuffed direct negotiations and claimed the U.S. is plotting a ground offensive
Crude oil prices breached the $115 per barrel threshold on Monday following weekend missile launches by Yemen’s Houthi forces targeting Israel, significantly expanding the Middle East conflict. Brent crude climbed 2.7% to reach $115.55, while West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.8% to $101.41.
The Iran-aligned Houthi movement confirmed launching multiple missiles and pledged additional strikes. Their involvement in the broader conflict sparked renewed anxiety regarding maritime traffic through the Red Sea and the strategically important Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical alternative passage for petroleum exports from the Gulf region.
Brent crude has now surged approximately 60% during March alone. This dramatic price escalation follows Iran’s decision to obstruct the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping corridor responsible for transporting roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply.
The United States confirmed deploying 3,500 military personnel to the region aboard the USS Tripoli warship. Israeli defense forces reported conducting strikes against Iranian targets in Tehran during the weekend.
Iran simultaneously launched attacks on aluminum production facilities in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Aluminium Bahrain acknowledged its operations were hit. Emirates Global Aluminium reported substantial damage to its Abu Dhabi facility from coordinated drone and missile strikes. Three-month aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange surged 5.4% to $3,461 per metric ton, recording a monthly increase exceeding 10%.
Stock Markets Under Pressure
Equity markets throughout Asia predominantly declined. South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 3%, weighed down by semiconductor and automotive sectors. Japan’s Nikkei retreated 2.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng decreased 0.9%.
European trading showed mixed results. Germany’s DAX edged down 0.2% while France’s CAC 40 remained unchanged. The UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.1%, bolstered by energy and commodity-related stocks.
U.S. equity futures moved against the global trend, with contracts linked to the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each rising approximately 0.4%.
U.S. Treasury yields retreated amid mounting economic growth worries. The 10-year yield declined 5.2 basis points to 4.387%. LBBW analysts projected that economies in both the United States and Europe could forfeit roughly a quarter percentage point of growth during the current year.
Crypto and Gold React
Bitcoin dropped to a one-month bottom of $64,991 during overnight trading before staging a recovery. By early Monday, it was changing hands at $67,347, up 1.2%.
Gold futures increased 0.9% to $4,533.30 per ounce, although the precious metal remains down over 13% for the month. ANZ analysts noted gold has fallen more than 15% in March, attributed partially to liquidations of gold-backed exchange-traded funds and strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Trump informed reporters aboard Air Force One that an agreement with Iran “could be soon,” referencing what he characterized as “very reasonable” new Iranian leadership. He stated Iran had permitted 20 oil tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan indicated its willingness to facilitate negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
Tehran dismissed direct dialogue and accused Washington of covertly preparing a ground invasion. Trump also revealed to the Financial Times his openness to controlling Iranian oil, while the Wall Street Journal disclosed the U.S. was evaluating the seizure of Iran’s uranium reserves.
OCBC analysts projected Brent crude will maintain levels around $100 per barrel through the middle of the year before progressively declining during the latter half of 2026.
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