TLDR
- Seven US lawmakers have called on CFTC Chair Michael Selig to address insider trading in prediction markets.
- The lawmakers argue that the CFTC has the authority to regulate suspicious trades linked to military events.
- The letter highlights concerns over event contracts tied to US military actions in Iran and Venezuela.
- Lawmakers claim that the CFTC’s inaction undermines its role as a global regulator of prediction markets.
- The CFTC’s enforcement director, David Miller, stated that the agency only pursues significant violations.
Seven US lawmakers have raised concerns with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) about its inaction on insider trading within prediction markets. The group, in a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, called for action on suspicious trading involving events tied to war and military conflicts. These trades have raised questions about the agency’s oversight in markets related to US military operations in regions such as Iran and Venezuela.
Lawmakers Urge CFTC Chair to Address Market Concerns
In a letter sent on Monday, seven members of the US House of Representatives expressed frustration with the CFTC’s response to insider trading in prediction markets. The lawmakers believe the agency has the authority to prevent manipulation of prediction markets through existing rules. They emphasized that the CFTC has jurisdiction over these markets under the Commodities Exchange Act.
The letter highlights concerns about event contracts tied to US military actions. It specifically points to suspicious trading surrounding military involvement in Iran and Venezuela. The lawmakers argue that such trades are “morally obscene” and should be subject to thorough oversight and regulation.
Insiders in Prediction Markets Face Increased Scrutiny
The letter stresses the need for the CFTC to take decisive action against suspicious trades. The lawmakers argue that allowing event contracts based on military actions raises doubts about the agency’s regulatory capacity. “Such corrupt trades deserve swift and decisive oversight,” the letter stated.
One of the primary concerns is the perceived lack of a proactive CFTC response to insider trading. Lawmakers argue that the commission should use its full authority to prevent manipulation in these markets. They believe that ignoring such trades undermines the CFTC’s role as a global regulator.
Legal Battles and CFTC’s Enforcement Role
The CFTC’s position on insider trading has become more complex due to recent legal decisions. The US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit recently ruled in favor of Kalshi, blocking New Jersey’s attempt to regulate event contracts. This ruling has added a layer of uncertainty around the CFTC’s enforcement capabilities.
CFTC enforcement director David Miller responded to concerns about insider trading earlier this year. Miller clarified that the agency would only focus on significant violations, not “trivial” cases. His comments came amid mounting pressure from lawmakers to address insider trading more vigorously in the context of prediction markets.



