TLDR:
- The CFTC issued a prediction markets advisory on February 25, 2026, following two Kalshi enforcement cases.
- A political candidate received a five-year Kalshi ban and a $2,246.36 penalty for trading on his own candidacy.
- A YouTube editor was fined $20,397.58 and suspended two years for trading on material nonpublic information.
- The CFTC confirmed full federal authority to prosecute fraud, insider trading, and manipulation on any DCM platform.
The CFTC Enforcement Division issued a prediction markets advisory on February 25, 2026. The advisory came after two enforcement cases surfaced involving fraudulent trading on KalshiEX, a Designated Contract Market.
Both cases involved misuse of nonpublic information on event contracts, also known as prediction markets. The CFTC used this opportunity to remind market participants that it holds full authority to prosecute illegal trading on any DCM, including Kalshi.
CFTC Confirms Full Authority Over Prediction Market Violations
The CFTC Enforcement Division made its position clear in the advisory released this week. While Kalshi handled both cases through its internal compliance program, the Division stressed it retains independent prosecutorial power.
The agency cited multiple sections of the Commodity Exchange Act to back its authority. This move signals that federal oversight of prediction markets is becoming more active.
The Division pointed to Section 6(c)(1) of the Act as the primary legal basis for action. Regulation 180.1(a)(1) and (3) also applies, covering manipulative schemes and fraudulent conduct.
The CFTC referenced prior enforcement actions, including CFTC v. Clark, to show its track record. These citations reinforce that prediction markets are not beyond the reach of federal law.
The advisory also addressed other prohibited practices beyond insider trading. These include pre-arranged trading, wash sales, and disruptive trading under Section 4c(a).
Fraud and manipulation under various sections of the Act were also listed. The CFTC made clear these rules apply to event contracts just as they do to traditional futures markets.
The Division further noted that DCMs carry an independent duty under Section 5(d) of the Act. This includes maintaining audit trails, conducting market surveillance, and enforcing rules.
The CFTC stated it will continue coordinating with exchanges on enforcement referrals where needed.
Two Kalshi Cases Prompted the CFTC Advisory
The first case involved a political candidate who traded on his own candidacy in May 2025. Social media videos surfaced showing the trades, prompting Kalshi’s compliance team to act immediately.
The trader admitted knowing the trades were improper under Kalshi’s rules. Kalshi imposed a $2,246.36 penalty and a five-year suspension from the exchange.
The CFTC noted this conduct potentially violated prohibitions on manipulative or deceptive trading practices. The candidate’s trades represented a direct conflict of interest with the outcome of the contract.
This type of self-interested trading threatens the integrity of prediction markets. The Division made clear it could have pursued this matter independently.
The second case involved a YouTube channel editor who traded between August and September 2025. The trader placed bets on a prediction market tied to the very channel where they worked.
Kalshi investigated the unusually profitable trades and discovered the employment connection. The trader likely accessed material nonpublic information through their editorial role before videos were published.
Kalshi imposed a $20,397.58 penalty, including $5,397.58 in disgorgement and a $15,000 fine. A two-year suspension from the exchange was also handed down.
The CFTC identified this as a potential misappropriation of confidential information in breach of a duty of trust. The Division’s advisory serves as a formal warning that such conduct on prediction markets carries serious federal consequences.
