TLDR
- Citigroup lowered its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether in a new research report.
- The bank reduced its Bitcoin target to $112,000 and its Ether target to $3,175.
- Citigroup cited slower progress on U.S. crypto legislation and weaker network activity as key reasons for the cuts.
- The bank lowered its ETF inflow assumptions to $10 billion for bitcoin and $2.5 billion for ether.
- Analyst Alex Saunders said ETF demand remains the main upside driver despite the reduced estimates.
Citigroup lowered its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether in a new report. The bank cited slower U.S. legislative progress and softer network activity. It also reduced its ETF inflow assumptions, while still projecting upside from current prices.
Citigroup lowers Bitcoin target to $112,000
Citigroup cut its 12-month bitcoin target to $112,000 from $143,000. The bank said weaker legislative momentum and slower network growth drove the revision. Bitcoin traded near $74,000 when the report was published.
The bank reduced its ETF inflow estimate to $10 billion for bitcoin. However, analyst Alex Saunders said ETF demand remains the key upside driver. He stated, “ETF demand, where we reduce the assumption to $10 billion, is still the most important positive factor.”
Saunders said Bitcoin has struggled since reaching record highs in October. He cited futures liquidations and fading post-halving enthusiasm as key pressures. Prices have stayed below important technical levels in recent weeks.
He added that bitcoin may continue to trade in a range. He identified $70,000 as an important psychological level tied to pre-election pricing. Market-implied odds for U.S. crypto legislation have fallen to around 60%.
Citigroup said the bull case depends on stronger end-investor adoption through ETFs. Under that scenario, bitcoin could reach $165,000 within a year. In contrast, the bear case target stands at $58,000 under recessionary macro conditions.
Ether Outlook Weakens as Legislation Stalls
Citigroup also lowered its 12-month ether target to $3,175 from $4,304. Ether traded near $2,330 at the time of publication. The bank linked the downgrade to weaker onchain activity and reduced demand assumptions.
The bank cut its ETF inflow estimate for ether to $2.5 billion. Saunders said Ether remains more sensitive to network usage trends. He noted that recent onchain activity has remained soft.
Saunders said the outlook depends heavily on U.S. regulatory progress. He stated that the window to pass digital asset legislation this year is narrowing. He added that comprehensive legislation would drive stronger institutional flows than incremental rule changes.
The CLARITY Act has cleared the House but remains stalled in the Senate. Lawmakers continue to negotiate competing proposals, which has slowed their path forward. The bill seeks to define token categories and assign oversight between the SEC and CFTC.
