Key Takeaways
- CoreWeave shares have declined approximately 28% following the release of Q4 financial results on February 26
- The company’s Q1 revenue forecast of $1.9B–$2B fell short of analyst expectations at $2.29B
- Full-year FY26 revenue projection of $12B–$13B marginally exceeded the $12B analyst consensus
- Contract backlog surged to $66.8B from $55.6B, representing a 342% year-over-year increase
- Citi downgraded its price objective to $126 from $135 and revised FY26 EPS forecast to ($2.97) from $0.75
When CoreWeave unveiled its Q4 financial results after market close on February 26, Wall Street responded with immediate and severe selling pressure.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
Shares plummeted as much as 21% during Friday’s trading session following the announcement, with additional weakness extending into the subsequent week. By early trading on Tuesday, March 3, CRWV had shed another 7%, culminating in a total drawdown of approximately 28% from pre-earnings levels.
While Q4 revenue reached $1.57B—representing 110% year-over-year growth and surpassing analyst projections—this positive metric couldn’t counterbalance the concerning elements within the report.
The primary concern centered on management’s Q1 revenue guidance of $1.9B–$2B, which significantly undershot the Street’s consensus forecast of $2.29B, triggering the sharpest investor concerns.
Looking at the full fiscal year, CoreWeave projected FY26 revenue between $12B–$13B, modestly outpacing the $12B consensus estimate. The company’s contract backlog expanded from $55.6B to $66.8B—marking a substantial 342% year-over-year acceleration.
Mounting Losses and Capital Spending Pressure Investors
The company posted a net loss of $284M for Q4, representing a dramatic escalation from the $36M loss recorded in the comparable quarter last year. Per-share losses reached $0.89, significantly worse than the anticipated loss of $0.21.
Interest expense ballooned to $388M during Q4, a substantial jump from $149M in the prior-year period. This growing financial burden represents a considerable obstacle on the road to profitability.
Management raised FY26 CapEx guidance to $30B–$35B, more than doubling the $14.9B deployed in FY25.
During the earnings conference call, CEO Michel Intrator defended the substantial capital expenditure increase. He emphasized that the spending aligns directly with secured customer contracts, referencing the $66.8B backlog as justification.
Intrator further indicated that all contracts associated with new infrastructure capacity are projected to commence revenue generation before the conclusion of 2026.
Approximately 70% of the backlog consists of engagements with financially sound, low-risk clients. The company’s two primary customers are Meta and Microsoft, both of which have announced substantial CapEx increases for the current year.
OpenAI, another significant customer, secured $110B in funding last week, alleviating certain concerns regarding circular financing dynamics.
CoreWeave concluded FY25 with 850 MW of operational power capacity. Total contracted power reached 3.1 GW. Management aims to bring 1.7 GW of active power online by year-end 2026, with a long-term objective of 5 GW in contracted footprint by 2030.
Wall Street Analyst Reactions
Citi Research responded swiftly to the quarterly results, implementing widespread estimate reductions.
Analyst Tyler Radke revised the FY26 EPS projection downward to ($2.97) from $0.75, while also cutting the FY27 EPS estimate to ($1.74) from $3.11.
The firm simultaneously reduced its CRWV price target to $126 from $135.
Citi explained that it aligned Q1 revenue and operating income projections with management guidance, considering the Q4 shortfall and the reality that Q1 guidance arrived with two-thirds of the quarter already completed.
Prior to the post-earnings decline, CRWV traded at a forward EV/Sales ratio of 12.56x. That valuation multiple has since contracted to approximately 5–6x when calculated against 2026 revenue projections.
Interestingly, the stock had gained roughly 9% on the Tuesday preceding the earnings announcement, following Trump’s State of the Union address, only to surrender those gains entirely and much more in the days that followed.
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