Crude Oil Surges Past $113 Amid Trump's Iran Deadline and Market Turmoil

Key Highlights

Table of Contents

Brent crude surged to $113.52 per barrel while WTI breached the $100 mark amid Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum
President Trump warned of strikes on Iranian power infrastructure unless the strait reopens; Tehran promised countermeasures
Energy infrastructure across nine nations has sustained damage to at least 40 assets since hostilities commenced
The International Energy Agency compared the current crisis to both 1970s oil shocks occurring simultaneously
Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 Brent crude projection upward to $85 per barrel from $77, citing extended supply disruptions

Energy markets witnessed another upward surge Monday as traders demonstrated skepticism toward President Trump’s 48-hour demand that Iran restore operations through the Strait of Hormuz.

🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” – President DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/htLz1A0Mf7

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 22, 2026

The international Brent crude benchmark advanced 1.2% to settle at $113.52 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, America’s primary crude measure, jumped 2.5% to $100.71 per barrel. Since American and Israeli military operations against Iran commenced in late February, Brent has experienced a remarkable rally exceeding 50%.

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Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)

Over the weekend, Trump declared that Tehran must completely restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz within two days or face military action targeting its electrical infrastructure. Iranian officials countered with warnings of retaliatory strikes against critical facilities throughout the region.

Market experts and industry observers expressed considerable doubt regarding Iran’s willingness to meet such demands. Rory Johnston, who founded Commodity Context Corp., noted: “The probability of Tehran accepting Trump’s conditions within such a compressed timeframe while facing military threats appears extremely low. Iran has demonstrated both capability and resolve to escalate proportionally.”

Scott Bessent, serving as Treasury Secretary, explained that American strikes target fortified positions surrounding the strait, emphasizing that Trump remains committed to employing “whatever measures necessary” to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz serves as the vital corridor connecting Persian Gulf oil production to international markets. Vessel movement through this critical waterway has effectively ground to a halt. Oil producers throughout the Persian Gulf region have been compelled to retain millions of barrels in storage or resort to constrained alternative shipping channels.

IEA Draws Parallels to Historical Energy Crises

Fatih Birol, who leads the International Energy Agency as Executive Director, addressed attendees at an Australian conference, characterizing the present disruption as comparable to merging both significant 1970s petroleum crises with the 2022 natural gas emergency following Russia’s Ukrainian invasion — “combined into one.”

He disclosed that a minimum of 40 energy facilities have experienced substantial damage spanning nine nations since conflict erupted. Though the IEA continues evaluating the release of strategic petroleum reserves, Birol emphasized that such measures alone would prove insufficient to address the crisis.

The confrontation has now persisted for 24 days, representing double the duration of a comparable standoff involving identical parties during the previous year.

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Crude Oil Projections

Goldman Sachs announced revised oil price projections over the weekend. The financial institution now anticipates Brent crude will average $85 per barrel throughout this year, representing an upward revision from the earlier $77 estimate. Their WTI projection similarly increased to $79 per barrel from the previous $72 forecast.

“Transit through Hormuz is anticipated to operate at merely 5% of normal capacity for six weeks before beginning a gradual restoration,” according to analysis from Daan Struyven and colleagues.

The analysts emphasized that price escalation will likely persist until markets develop confidence that prolonged supply interruptions remain improbable.

Haris Khurshid, serving as chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, observed: “More widespread complications affecting maritime transport or insurance coverage will probably be necessary before prices begin accelerating more dramatically.”

Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, has canceled his participation in Houston’s upcoming CERAWeek annual gathering this week, where petroleum market dynamics and the ongoing conflict were anticipated to dominate agenda items.

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