TLDR
- A military correspondent for The Times of Israel faced death threats from Polymarket users attempting to manipulate his coverage of an Iranian attack
- More than $17 million in wagers were placed on a Polymarket prediction about Iranian strikes on Israel dated March 10
- Emanuel Fabian, the targeted reporter, contacted law enforcement and maintained his original reporting
- The platform suspended involved user accounts and provided information to law enforcement agencies
- Legislators in the United States have put forward the “Death Bets Act” to prohibit prediction markets on warfare and political assassinations
A military correspondent covering Israeli defense matters became the target of intimidation campaigns by users of cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket following his coverage of an Iranian missile attack near Beit Shemesh on March 10, 2026.
Emanuel Fabian, who reports on military affairs for The Times of Israel, documented that an Iranian ballistic missile impacted an uninhabited zone near the Israeli city. His account became crucial to resolving a $17 million prediction market on Polymarket concerning whether Iran had executed strikes against Israel on that specific date.
The market’s resolution criteria specified that a “yes” outcome required Iran to successfully launch missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, or conduct airstrikes on Israeli territory. However, an additional stipulation indicated that intercepted projectiles would not qualify for affirmative resolution.
Users who had bet against Iranian strikes initiated a coordinated campaign to pressure Fabian into revising his published article to state the missile had been neutralized by Israeli defenses rather than reaching the ground.
Fabian disclosed receiving contact through email, telephone calls, and messaging applications from individuals demanding he alter his published coverage.
An individual using the name “Haim” transmitted threatening communications in Hebrew, warning Fabian he would experience harm he had “never imagined,” that he had created “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable,” and threatening they would “finish” him.
The individual also revealed private information concerning Fabian’s relatives and residential location.
Fabian filed an official complaint with Israeli police authorities, who launched a formal investigation into the matter.
A journalism colleague from a separate news organization informed Fabian that someone had contacted them offering a portion of potential betting winnings in return for convincing Fabian to modify his coverage.
Fabian rejected all manipulation attempts and affirmed his reporting was grounded in official statements from Israeli emergency response teams and defense establishment sources.
Polymarket Bans Accounts, Authorities Notified
Polymarket issued a public statement on X declaring the conduct “a violation of our Terms of Service” and announced it had permanently suspended all associated accounts. The platform confirmed it would provide user data to appropriate law enforcement entities.
The Israel Defense Forces subsequently verified that the missile impacting the area outside Beit Shemesh had not been intercepted by defensive systems, corroborating Fabian’s initial reporting.
US Lawmakers Move to Restrict War-Linked Prediction Markets
The incident has intensified ongoing policy discussions in the United States Capitol regarding the appropriateness of prediction markets connected to military conflicts and international security events.
Senator Adam Schiff alongside Representative Mike Levin have recently introduced legislation titled the “Death Bets Act,” which would prohibit prediction market contracts connected to military conflicts, political assassinations, or mortality events.
Senator Chris Murphy has independently proposed legislation to ban contracts related to United States military operations after blockchain intelligence company Bubblemaps discovered digital wallets that generated approximately $1 million through wagers on American military strikes against Iran immediately preceding their occurrence.
Polymarket additionally recently discontinued a prediction market permitting speculation on whether nuclear weapons would be deployed during the current year following significant public backlash.
Notwithstanding the controversies, platform transaction volumes continue expanding. Kalshi processed approximately $10.4 billion in transaction volume during February 2026. Polymarket registered roughly $7.9 billion throughout the identical period.
Both platforms collectively are projected to achieve a seventh consecutive month of record activity with combined trading volume approaching $20 billion.
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