TLDR:
- ADP halted sharing weekly payroll data with the Fed after Waller disclosed the collaboration in a public speech.
- The private dataset covered 20% of U.S. workers and helped the Fed track jobs in real time during BLS gaps.
- Powell has asked ADP to restore access, stressing how the data guided policy, but no deal has been reached yet.
- Crypto and stock markets could see more price swings as the Fed operates without its usual labor data inputs.
The Federal Reserve just lost one of its fastest windows into the U.S. labor market. Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the country’s largest private payroll processor, has cut off access to a private dataset used by the Fed to track real-time employment trends.
The move came right as the government shutdown blocked other official reports, adding pressure to policymakers who rely on near-term job data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reportedly urged ADP to reconsider, but the standoff continues.
Crypto and equity traders are now watching closely, as labor data shifts can move asset prices fast.
ADP Ends Private Data Sharing with the Fed
According to reports shared by Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) and MartyParty (@martypartymusic), ADP has stopped providing its weekly payroll data to the Federal Reserve.
The dataset, which covered roughly 20% of private U.S. workers, gave the Fed an edge in tracking job growth between Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases. That stream of data is now gone.
The decision followed a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on August 28, 2025, where he publicly discussed how the Fed used ADP’s data to build internal job measures.
That speech, titled “Let’s Get On With It,” apparently revealed more about the partnership than ADP was comfortable with. Sources say ADP became uneasy with how public the collaboration had become, raising privacy and regulatory flags.
ADP still publishes its monthly National Employment Report with Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab, but that public data arrives weeks later and lacks the detail that the Fed once received.
The sudden halt now leaves policymakers without a near real-time pulse on job shifts, especially during the ongoing shutdown that’s cut access to most official labor statistics.
Market watchers are viewing this data blackout as another challenge for the Fed’s decision-making process. Without current payroll information, rate forecasts could lean more uncertain, rippling into crypto and traditional markets.
How the Fed’s Data Gap Could Influence Markets and Crypto Price Trends
While the dispute centers on labor data, its reach stretches far beyond the Fed. Traders often rely on job growth figures to gauge risk sentiment and liquidity cycles.
A slowdown in data could add short-term volatility across equities and crypto markets, as investors react to unclear employment signals.
For crypto traders, job reports influence macro narratives around inflation and monetary tightening. Missing inputs could make those forecasts harder to price in, especially when Bitcoin and Ethereum often move in sync with shifts in interest rate expectations.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reportedly sent an urgent appeal to ADP to restore access, emphasizing how the data supported policy stability. But no progress has been made public.
Until an agreement is reached, analysts say the Fed’s insight into labor trends will remain limited, forcing heavier reliance on delayed public numbers.
This fallout shows how sensitive data partnerships can quickly unravel when transparency meets proprietary control. It’s a rare instance where a speech, not a policy, triggered a data blackout that may ripple through global asset pricing models.
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