Key Takeaways
- In March 2026, Hims & Hers transitioned away from compounded semaglutide to FDA-approved branded GLP-1 medications
- Bank of America reduced its HIMS price target to $21 from $23 while maintaining a Neutral stance
- Analysts project GLP-1 EBITDA contributions may decline by 50% compared to last year
- Amazon Pharmacy launched Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 medication Foundayo, intensifying market competition
- Year-to-date, HIMS shares have plunged approximately 39%, hovering near $20
In a significant strategic shift this March, Hims & Hers abandoned its compounded semaglutide offerings in favor of FDA-sanctioned branded GLP-1 treatments. Management positioned this decision as transforming the company into “the largest global consumer health platform for access to more affordable, approved medications.”
Hims & Hers Health, Inc., HIMS
This strategic reversal came after settling legal proceedings with Novo Nordisk. The resolution required Hims & Hers to distribute Novo Nordisk’s authorized GLP-1 medications instead of less expensive compounded alternatives.
Investors have responded harshly to these developments. HIMS shares have plummeted nearly 39% year-to-date through Wednesday, currently trading in the vicinity of $20.
BofA Securities analyst Allen Lutz reduced his price objective on HIMS this week from $23 down to $21. The analyst maintained his Neutral stance, pointing to valuation compression among comparable companies and anticipated near-term profitability headwinds.
Lutz’s forecast suggests 2026 EBITDA could land approximately 20% beneath current Wall Street expectations. His analysis indicates GLP-1-related EBITDA contributions might decline by up to 50% compared to the previous year.
Neverthstanding the conservative perspective, Lutz indicated his research team holds “slightly more optimistic” views regarding the company’s overseas expansion strategy. He further observed that the $149 monthly branded GLP-1 subscription plan might eventually deliver margins comparable to compounded options, contingent upon subscriber migration rates.
Subscriber Migration Rates Will Determine Success
BofA Securities projects that Hims & Hers might successfully transition between 40% and 50% of current subscribers to branded medication plans, while maintaining 5% to 10% on compounded alternatives. This conversion scenario would produce approximately $60 million to $90 million in GLP-1 revenues each quarter.
The telehealth platform is simultaneously pursuing international market opportunities. Management targets growing this division beyond $1 billion in annual revenue within a three-year timeframe, achieving mid-teens organic compound annual growth rates. Bank of America’s research into the Eucalyptus platform indicates approximately 90% of revenues will derive from branded GLP-1 distribution at roughly 40% gross profit margins.
Canaccord analyst Maria Ripps offered a more bullish assessment. She maintained her Buy recommendation, contending that the Novo Nordisk collaboration represents a “long-term tailwind” for the business. Ripps believes current valuations fail to recognize the value of the company’s telehealth infrastructure, customer base, and broadening treatment offerings.
Amazon Intensifies Competition With Foundayo Launch
Competitive dynamics became more challenging Thursday when Amazon Pharmacy revealed plans to distribute Eli Lilly’s recently authorized oral GLP-1 medication, Foundayo, featuring same-day delivery options. HIMS shares dipped 0.5% following this announcement. Novo Nordisk declined 1.5%.
Foundayo represents a once-daily oral therapy designed for adults managing obesity or overweight conditions with related health complications. Pricing begins at $25 monthly with insurance coverage, or $149 monthly for self-pay patients.
Amazon will provide same-day delivery across nearly 3,000 metropolitan areas, with plans to extend coverage to 4,500 locations before year-end. The e-commerce giant disclosed it has distributed GLP-1 medications since 2021, with customers saving over $200 million through automated coupon programs, where GLP-1 treatments represent the largest savings category.
Wall Street consensus on HIMS currently stands at Moderate Buy, based on four Buy ratings and 10 Hold ratings issued during the past three months. The mean price target of $26.36 suggests potential upside of approximately 36% from present trading levels.
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