Intel (INTC) Stock: Traders Bet on Wild Swing as Chipmaker Reports First Earnings Since Government Deal

TLDR

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Intel reports Q3 earnings Thursday after market close with options pricing suggesting a 10% move in either direction
A 10% jump would push shares to $42, the highest since April 2024, while a 10% drop could bring them to just above $32
This marks Intel’s first earnings report since the federal government took a nearly 10% stake in the company
The chipmaker has secured additional investments from SoftBank and Nvidia, with plans to partner on custom hardware
Despite a 90% year-to-date stock surge, analysts remain cautious with an average price target of $30.60 suggesting 20% downside

Intel is heading into Thursday’s third-quarter earnings release with traders expecting unusual volatility. Options pricing indicates the stock could swing nearly 10% in either direction when markets open Friday morning.

Intel Corporation, INTC

Based on Monday’s closing price, a 10% upward move would put Intel shares at approximately $42. That would mark the highest price point since April 2024. On the flip side, a 10% decline would push the stock to just above $32 by week’s end.

The expected volatility exceeds Intel’s recent track record. The chipmaker’s shares have moved an average of 6.5% following its last four earnings reports. In July, the stock tumbled more than 8% after the company reported an unexpected loss and issued disappointing guidance for the third quarter.

The last time Intel saw positive momentum after earnings was a year ago. Back then, executives highlighted what they called “solid progress” on the company’s turnaround plan.

Government Stake Marks Turning Point

Thursday’s report carries extra weight as Intel’s first earnings release since the federal government acquired roughly 10% of the company. The deal with the Trump administration appears to have changed the game for the struggling chipmaker.

Following the government investment, Intel landed additional backing from Japanese venture capital firm SoftBank. AI chip maker Nvidia also joined as an investor and announced plans to partner with Intel on custom hardware development.

These deals seem to have rescued Intel’s stock price. Shares were going nowhere until rumors about White House negotiations started making the rounds in early August.

Intel has posted a 90% gain since the start of 2025. But here’s the kicker—all those gains happened in just the last three months.

Investor Focus on Foundry Business

The Thursday afternoon earnings call will be closely watched. Investors want to hear how these new investments will affect Intel’s troubled foundry business.

The foundry operations have been a pain point for the company. The recent capital injections and partnerships raise questions about whether Intel can turn this segment around.

Executives will likely face pointed questions about the timeline for improvement. They’ll also need to address how the Nvidia partnership for custom hardware fits into the broader strategy.

The government’s stake and the subsequent investments have created a lifeline. But translating that cash into operational improvements remains the challenge.

Analyst sentiment tells a cautious story. Of the seven analysts tracked by Visible Alpha with current ratings, five have assigned Intel a “Hold” rating. Two analysts are calling it a “sell.”

The average analyst price target sits at $30.60. That represents nearly 20% downside from Monday’s closing level. The disconnect between the stock’s recent rally and analyst expectations is hard to ignore.

Intel shares closed Monday at around $38. The options market is pricing in that potential $42 high or $32 low depending on how Thursday’s numbers land. Traders seem split on whether the government backing and new partnerships justify the current valuation or if reality will pull prices back down.

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