MSTR Stock Target Cut to $185 as Analyst Adjusts to Crypto Market Fall

TLDR

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Joseph Vafi from Canaccord has reduced his MSTR stock price target by 61%.
The new MSTR stock price target is now set at $185, down from $474.
Vafi still maintains a buy rating despite the steep cut in his price estimate.
Strategy’s stock has dropped 15% in 2026 and 62% over the past year.
The company’s value is now closely tied to the performance of Bitcoin.

As the ongoing crypto winter continues, investors are looking for signs that the bearish trend has reached its peak. A notable update comes from Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi, who dramatically slashed his price target on Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) stock. Vafi reduced his target by 61%, setting it at $185 from the previous $474, reflecting the significant impact of the current market conditions.

Strategy (MSTR) Faces Setback Amid Market Volatility

Joseph Vafi’s revised price target fo MSTR stock marks a stark change in outlook. After maintaining a bullish stance on the stock just a few months ago, Vafi is now adjusting his expectations to reflect the ongoing struggles within the crypto space. The analyst still holds a buy rating on the stock, despite the massive cut in his price target.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

At $185, the new target implies about 40% upside from the most recent closing price of $133. However, this outlook comes after Strategy has suffered significant losses, down 15% year-to-date, 62% year-over-year, and 72% from its record high in November 2024. The bearish trend is in line with the broader decline in the cryptocurrency market, which has faced immense pressure over the past year.

Bitcoin’s Ongoing Struggles Impact MSTR Stock

In his analysis, Vafi pointed to Bitcoin’s “identity crisis” as a key factor in the struggles of MSTR. While Bitcoin is still seen as a long-term store of value, its recent price movements resemble that of a risk asset, making it more susceptible to volatility. “Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset,” Vafi remarked, highlighting how the cryptocurrency failed to track with precious metals like gold.

The Bitcoin-led company Strategy has been hit hard by these developments. Despite holding more than $44 billion in Bitcoin, the company has seen its market cap drop to levels close to its Bitcoin holdings. This correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the stock’s performance has made Strategy’s financial health more reliant on the digital asset’s price fluctuations than anticipated.

MSTR’s Near-Complete Dependence on Bitcoin

With Bitcoin’s price fluctuations dominating its financial outlook, quarterly results for MSTR have become less relevant. Investors are increasingly focused on the value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings rather than its operational performance. The upcoming quarterly results are expected to show a sizable unrealized loss due to Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter selloff.

Vafi’s revised price target assumes a 20% rebound in Bitcoin prices, which would help stabilize Strategy’s mNAV. However, the stock’s future remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months. Despite this, Vafi remains optimistic, stating that Strategy is still built to weather volatility, given its strong Bitcoin position.

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