TLDR
- NIO shares climbed 5.9% to $4.70 after projecting first quarterly profit of $100-172 million
- Q4 2025 operating profit marks turnaround from $832 million loss in same period last year
- Company delivered 125,000 vehicles in Q4, up 71% year-over-year from 73,000 units
- January 2026 deliveries jumped 96.1% to 27,182 vehicles despite 43.5% drop from December
- Analysts set average price target at $6.03 with Moderate Buy rating
NIO stock rallied Thursday, closing 5.9% higher at $4.70 after the Chinese EV manufacturer announced something it’s never achieved before: quarterly profitability.
The company expects adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s a stunning reversal from the $832 million adjusted operating loss recorded in the same quarter of 2024.
Wall Street didn’t see this coming. Analysts had penciled in an $80 million loss for the period.
NIO attributed the profit swing to three key drivers: higher vehicle sales, an improved product mix that boosted margins, and successful cost-cutting measures as production volumes scaled up.
On a GAAP basis, the company projects operating profit of $29 million to $100 million. The adjusted numbers exclude share-based compensation expenses.
Delivery Growth Powers Profit Turn
The profit forecast builds on strong delivery momentum. NIO moved roughly 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a 71% increase from approximately 73,000 units in the prior-year quarter.
January 2026 continued the upward trend. The company reported 27,182 deliveries, a 96.1% year-over-year surge.
The ES8 model led the January charge. But deliveries dropped 43.5% from December’s numbers, reflecting typical seasonal patterns after year-end sales pushes.
These figures remain preliminary and unaudited. NIO plans to release audited fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results in March, which could show some variation from these estimates.
Wall Street Expectations and Stock Performance
Analysts forecast a Q4 loss per share of $0.01, a massive improvement from the $0.39 loss reported twelve months earlier. Revenue estimates stand at $4.20 billion versus $2.7 billion in the year-ago quarter.
The Thursday gain came while broader markets retreated. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell approximately 1.2%.
Despite Thursday’s pop, NIO stock remains down roughly 93% from its February 2021 peak of $62.84. The shares had gained only about 6% over the trailing twelve months before Thursday’s announcement.
Analyst Sentiment
Three analysts rate NIO as a Buy, two assign Hold ratings, and one recommends Sell based on recent coverage. That combination produces a Moderate Buy consensus rating.
The average twelve-month price target sits at $6.03. From Thursday’s close, that target represents potential upside of 28.3%.
The company will provide complete financial details when it reports Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings in March.
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