Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Receives Third Negative Analyst Call in 60 Days

TLDR

Table of Contents

Seaport Research Partners moved Qualcomm (QCOM) to Sell from Neutral, setting a $100 price objective
Shares have tumbled 24% in 2025, currently hovering near $129.82
Analyst predicts smartphone unit sales could decline 10%–15% in 2026 amid rising component costs
Apple’s transition to in-house chips expected to eliminate all Qualcomm content from iPhones by next year’s lineup
The majority of leading smartphone manufacturers are now developing proprietary chip solutions

Qualcomm’s performance has been among the weakest in the chip sector throughout 2025. With shares sliding approximately 24% year-to-date, Seaport Research Partners believes the downward trajectory isn’t finished.

QUALCOMM Incorporated, QCOM

This Monday, Seaport shifted its stance on QCOM to Sell from Neutral and established a $100 price objective — suggesting potential downside of roughly 23% from present trading levels.

The thesis centers on a relatively simple premise: the global smartphone industry faces mounting pressure, and Qualcomm sits squarely in the crosshairs.

According to Seaport’s Jay Goldberg, escalating memory chip costs will force handset manufacturers into difficult decisions. The options are raising device prices or reducing memory specifications — both scenarios likely extending consumer upgrade cycles.

Goldberg’s team anticipates worldwide smartphone shipments could contract 10% to 15% throughout 2026. For Qualcomm’s mobile chipset business, this represents a substantial reduction in available market opportunity.

Apple, representing Qualcomm’s most significant customer relationship, is on track to completely eliminate the company’s components from iPhone production. According to Seaport’s analysis, Qualcomm’s iPhone revenue exposure should reach zero with next year’s device generation.

While market participants have anticipated this shift for some time, the financial impact remains substantial regardless.

Premium Android Devices Offer Little Relief

Qualcomm had found relative strength recently in flagship Android smartphones. However, these premium-tier products face the most acute exposure to memory cost inflation.

This dynamic creates compounding challenges for Qualcomm: declining unit volumes combined with pressure on licensing revenue from affected devices.

Chinese smartphone brands may shift production emphasis toward budget segments, potentially benefiting competitor MediaTek or forcing Qualcomm into defensive pricing actions. Industry reporting already indicates Qualcomm has reduced pricing on certain SKUs, with Seaport anticipating broader price concessions ahead.

Compounding these headwinds, four among the five largest smartphone producers have launched internal processor development programs. This trend erodes Qualcomm’s competitive positioning across multiple fronts simultaneously.

Wall Street Sentiment Shifts Negative

Seaport’s downgrade follows similar cautious calls from other research shops. BofA Securities resumed coverage last week with an Underperform designation, highlighting projected revenue and profit growth trailing the semiconductor industry average. BofA specifically noted the anticipated $7–8 billion revenue gap from Apple’s departure.

Mizuho downgraded QCOM to Neutral from Outperform during January, expressing concerns about deteriorating fundamentals in Qualcomm’s primary smartphone business.

The bearish consensus isn’t universal, however. Piper Sandler maintains its Overweight recommendation with a $200 price target. Loop Capital recently upgraded shares to Buy, emphasizing diversification initiatives. Wells Fargo adjusted its rating to Equal Weight from Underweight, highlighting opportunities in data center markets.

Qualcomm delivered better-than-expected results for its December quarter, though management’s March quarter outlook disappointed due to memory supply constraints affecting Chinese customer orders.

Shares traded around $129.99 during Monday’s premarket session, declining roughly 1% from Friday’s close.

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