TLDR
- Samsara (IOT) rallied 15% following a fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.18, significantly above the Street’s $0.13 estimate
- Q4 revenue reached $444.3M, reflecting 28% growth year-over-year and surpassing the $422.3M consensus
- The company’s annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.9B, marking approximately 30% year-over-year expansion
- Management’s FY2027 EPS outlook of $0.65–$0.69 dramatically exceeded the $0.33 analyst consensus
- Wall Street analysts maintained bullish stances with Buy/Outperform ratings and price targets between $39 and $44
Shares of Samsara (IOT) experienced a significant rally on Friday, climbing 15% to reach $34.10 following the company’s impressive fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release on Thursday. The surge helped recover a portion of the stock’s year-to-date decline of 17% that preceded the earnings announcement.
The quarterly performance left little room for criticism. The connected operations platform provider reported $444.3 million in revenue, representing a 28.3% increase versus the prior-year period and comfortably exceeding the Wall Street estimate of $422.3 million. On the bottom line, adjusted earnings per share of $0.18 handily topped the consensus forecast of $0.13 by a five-cent margin.
The fiscal year concluded with annual recurring revenue of $1.9 billion, reflecting 30% year-over-year growth — a critical indicator for investors evaluating the company’s ongoing expansion trajectory.
Guidance Turns Heads
Perhaps equally significant was the forward-looking outlook management provided. Samsara’s FY2027 EPS projection of $0.65–$0.69 dramatically surpassed the analyst consensus of approximately $0.33 — effectively doubling Wall Street’s expectations. For the current quarter, Q1 2027 EPS guidance of $0.12–$0.13 also topped projections.
The company is targeting revenue growth of 21%–22% for fiscal 2027 while emphasizing its artificial intelligence capabilities and expansion plans.
Evercore ISI’s Kirk Materne maintained his Outperform rating and elevated Samsara to a “top idea” designation, replacing Oracle in that slot. Materne highlighted the company’s vertical integration strategy as a defensive moat against potential AI-driven disruption — a particularly relevant consideration given recent pressure on software stocks from AI concerns.
BTIG’s Nick Altmann retained his Buy rating while adjusting his price target downward from $55 to $45, acknowledging broader valuation compression across the software sector. Altmann emphasized Samsara’s proprietary data assets as a competitive advantage for developing AI-powered features.
Analyst Price Targets
BMO Capital Markets increased its price objective from $40 to $44 while maintaining an Outperform rating. Piper Sandler raised its target to $39 from $37 with an Overweight rating, suggesting approximately 22.8% upside potential from the previous closing price. KeyCorp adjusted its target upward to $41 from $40, also with an Overweight rating.
Royal Bank of Canada has established a $35 price target on the shares.
Across 17 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating stands at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $45.69. The breakdown includes one Strong Buy rating, eleven Buy ratings, four Hold ratings, and one Sell rating.
Samsara’s shares have traded between $23.38 and $48.40 over the past 52 weeks. The company currently commands a market capitalization of approximately $18.3 billion.
One potential concern worth noting: insider selling activity has been notable. Co-founders John Bicket and Sanjit Biswas each divested 263,900 shares on January 6 at $34.40 per share — transactions valued at roughly $9 million apiece. Throughout the past 90 days, company insiders have sold approximately 2.9 million shares totaling $92 million. Despite this activity, corporate insiders maintain ownership of about 46.5% of the outstanding shares.
Institutional investors hold 96% of the company, with multiple funds increasing their positions in recent quarters.
From a technical perspective, Samsara’s 50-day moving average currently sits at $30.39, and Friday’s closing price of $34.10 positions the stock above that technical level.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
