US Government Shutdown 75% Likely: What It Means for Bitcoin Markets

TLDR

Table of Contents

Polymarket data shows 75% probability of US partial government shutdown starting January 31 over DHS funding debate
Senate Democrats block $1.2 trillion spending bill following death of Minneapolis nurse Alex Pretti by federal agents
Six of twelve appropriations bills already passed, making this shutdown smaller than October 2025’s 43-day closure
Bitcoin trades at $89,177, down 29% from October peak, as markets assess potential liquidity impact
Historical patterns suggest 60% chance of last-minute congressional deal before Friday deadline

The United States government approaches a potential partial shutdown with 75% probability according to Polymarket data. Bettors have wagered $13.3 million on the outcome as the Friday deadline approaches.

BREAKING: U.S. Government shutdown odds hit 75%. https://t.co/GaQ0l50p8M pic.twitter.com/EhNa46JRxw

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 24, 2026

Senate Democrats are blocking a House-passed spending measure over Department of Homeland Security funding concerns. The standoff follows the killing of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old nurse, by federal agents in Minneapolis. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced he will vote against any bill funding ICE until the agency undergoes reform.

The spending package totals more than $1.2 trillion and covers nine federal departments. These include Defense, Treasury, State, Health and Human Services, Labor, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, and Education. The bill requires 60 Senate votes to pass but faces Democratic opposition strong enough to sustain a filibuster.

Smaller Scope Than 2025 Full Shutdown

This potential shutdown presents a different scenario from last October’s crisis. The 2025 shutdown lasted 43 days and blocked all twelve government appropriations bills. This time six spending bills have already become law.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget confirms that Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce, and Energy departments secured full fiscal year funding. DHS maintains roughly $178 billion in reserve funds from last year’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” These reserves allow the agency to continue most operations even during a funding lapse.

Last October’s full shutdown removed approximately $700 billion in market liquidity. The Treasury General Account expanded to $1 trillion during that period. The current partial shutdown would produce a smaller liquidity drain since half the appropriations bills passed and DHS holds reserve funding.

Bitcoin Price Action and Market Response

Bitcoin currently trades at $89,177, showing a 0.9% gain over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency remains 29% below its October all-time high of $126,000.

Bitcoin spot ETF flows show $1.33 billion in net outflows for the week ending January 23. Market analysts attribute these outflows to multiple factors including Federal Reserve policy decisions and technology sector earnings reports rather than shutdown concerns alone.

Market analyst SGX points to historical patterns showing three of five shutdown crises between 2013 and 2023 resolved through last-minute deals. This represents a 60% success rate for eleventh-hour agreements. Economic pressure provides incentive for compromise as one-week shutdowns typically cost $4 to $6 billion and produce 2% to 3% market declines.

Congressional Timeline and Next Steps

Senate Majority Leader John Thune described Pretti’s death as a tragedy requiring full investigation. He confirmed ongoing talks to resolve the appropriations impasse.

The House of Representatives entered prescheduled recess this week. Any Senate modifications to the spending bill would require House reapproval. House leadership has not announced plans to return before the Friday midnight deadline.

If the bill fails to pass, affected agencies will implement shutdown procedures. Nonessential employees face furlough while essential workers continue without immediate pay. Social Security payments and Medicare services typically continue during government shutdowns according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Republicans could potentially separate DHS funding from other appropriations or Democrats might accept compromise language removing controversial border provisions. Both parties face political costs from shutdown-related economic damage.

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