TLDR
- Visa dropped 4.5% Monday after a Citrini Research post warned AI agents could route around card networks and undercut processing fees.
- The stock closed at $306.52, down from an opening of $319.04.
- Mastercard fell 5.7% and American Express dropped 7.2% in the same session.
- Visa edged 0.2% higher in Tuesday premarket, recovering a small portion of losses.
- A $38 billion swipe fee settlement with merchants is still awaiting a judge’s approval.
Visa closed Monday at $306.52, down 4.5% after a research note suggested artificial intelligence could one day threaten the fees that underpin its business.
The note came from Citrini Research, an independent firm. Published on Substack on Sunday, it described itself as “a scenario, not a prediction” — framing the piece as a hypothetical financial digest dated June 30, 2028.
In that fictional snapshot, U.S. unemployment had passed 10% and the S&P 500 had fallen 38% from its peak. AI displacing white-collar workers was the central cause.
Visa was named directly. Citrini argued that AI agents acting for consumers could seek out cheaper payment routes, putting the 2%-3% network and processing fees Visa depends on at risk. Stablecoins were mentioned as a potential alternative to traditional card rails.
The stock opened at $319.04, hit a session low of $304.71, and closed near the bottom of its range.
Payment Sector Sold Off Broadly
The pain spread across the sector. Mastercard fell 5.7% and American Express dropped 7.2% in the same session. Visa and American Express ranked among the biggest drags on the Dow, per MarketWatch data.
Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, described the mood plainly: “You’ve seen the market react to headlines, it’s ‘sell first, assess later.'”
The selloff raised questions about any business model built on collecting a small fee from every transaction — the so-called toll booth model that payment networks rely on.
Swipe Fee Settlement Still Unresolved
Visa also carries a separate legal overhang. In November, Visa and Mastercard put forward a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants over swipe fees. A judge has yet to sign off.
Merchant groups say the deal doesn’t do enough. Stephanie Martz, general counsel for the National Retail Federation, said: “You can’t just suddenly tell more than 80% of your card customers you’re not going to take their cards.”
It’s worth noting that Visa doesn’t collect interchange fees directly — those go to card-issuing banks. Visa’s revenue comes from network and processing fees, which depend on transaction volume and cross-border activity staying healthy.
What’s Next for Visa
Visa nudged 0.2% higher in Tuesday premarket, reaching $307.09 — a modest recovery after the prior session’s losses.
Two investor events are on the calendar. Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell is set to appear at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3. Commercial & Money Movement Solutions President Chris Newkirk follows at the Wolfe Research FinTech Forum on March 11.
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