$9.4B Weekend Reshapes Prediction Markets—Who Is Gaining Ground?

TLDR

Table of Contents

Prediction markets recorded more than $9.4 billion in weekend notional trading volume.
Kalshi led with $7.13 billion, with football and combo contracts driving most activity.
DraftKings and FanDuel added $7 million to Nebraska’s online sports betting campaign.
The CFTC approved Kalshi’s US500 perpetual futures contract on October 3.
Bank of America upgraded DraftKings to Buy and sees up to $800 million in prediction-market revenue opportunities for 2027.

Prediction markets set another weekend trading record as activity across Kalshi, Polymarket US, DraftKings Predictions, and Novig topped $9.4 billion. Kalshi led the market with $7.13 billion across Saturday and Sunday, while sports and combo contracts drove most of the volume.

Prediction Markets Set New Weekend Record

Kalshi posted $3.68 billion in volume on Sunday, beating Saturday’s $3.45 billion record. Football generated about $4 billion of weekend activity, including roughly $3.1 billion from combo contracts and $897 million from straight football markets.

Polymarket US passed $1 billion for the weekend, while DraftKings Predictions reached about $372 million. Novig reported roughly $286 million. Recent regulatory attention has also increased after new CFTC rules for event contracts moved to White House review.

Sportsbooks Fund Nebraska Betting Campaign

DraftKings and FanDuel each added $3.5 million to Tax Relief Nebraska before the Nov. 3 vote. BetMGM contributed another $250,000, taking election-year fundraising for the campaign to $14.65 million.

Nebraska voters will decide whether lawmakers can authorize online sports betting and create a regulatory system. The proposals would allow up to 12 mobile sportsbooks tied to the state’s six gaming facilities.

Kalshi Expands Beyond Event Contracts

The CFTC approved Kalshi’s US500 perpetual futures contract on Oct. 3. The product tracks a broad U.S. stock index without a fixed expiry date and uses funding payments to keep pricing close to the underlying index. Kalshi’s $40 billion funding talks have also drawn attention as the company expands its product range.

Polymarket is also fighting a Dutch enforcement action. The company argues its contracts are financial products and should fall under financial market supervision rather than gambling rules. Dutch regulators previously imposed a €420,000 penalty after the platform failed to comply with an order on time.

DraftKings Outlook Draws Wall Street Attention

Bank of America upgraded DraftKings to buy from neutral and kept a $27 price target. Analysts estimated prediction-market fees could reach about $400 million in 2027, with market making adding another $200 million to $400 million. Polymarket’s V2 settlement upgrade also shows how platforms are building new infrastructure as competition rises.

DraftKings shares gained more than 7% intraday Monday, although the stock remains down more than 40% this year. The sector now faces growing trading activity, regulatory disputes, and expanding financial products across several major platforms. Legal questions also continue across several key markets.

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