As many readers are likely well aware of, just hours ago, a Bitcoin address created in February 2009 sent its first transaction, transacting 50 coins generated by mining to two other addresses.
50 BTC is not a large amount of money in macro terms — it’s around $500,000 in a market worth in excess of $175 billion. Though fears quickly spread about the implications of this transaction.
The immediate theory was that due to the proximity of this address’ age to the first block of the Bitcoin network, it was Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto that sent the transaction. The pseudonymous coder is expected to own approximately one million coins from 2009-2010, when he was one of the only few people working on Bitcoin or mining BTC.
With this transaction marking one of the first movements of early-2009 coins ever, this conclusion was to be expected. But chain analysis firms have tried to calm the markets, saying that from how they see it, there’s a low likelihood that it is Satoshi Nakamoto, who has purportedly not sold a single coin.
It Isn’t Satoshi Nakamoto, Blockchain Analysis Firms Say
According to Coin Metrics co-founder Nic Carter, the Satoshi-era address involved in this whole debacle does not fit what we know about addresses that are actually affiliated with Satoshi, who purportedly only mined a “specific set of” Bitcoin blocks. Carter explained:
Here’s a visualization of the Patoshi pattern with the block that was just spent. The blocks believed to be Satoshi have a specific pattern in the nonce, which this block does not have.
This was corroborated by blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode along with adopters of Bitcoin that were around early on in the cryptocurrency’s life.
Craig Wright Has Laid Claim to the BItcoin Address
With the jury still out on who sent the transaction, self-proclaimed Bitcoin creator Craig Wright is entering the conversation once again.
A court document for a case between Wright and the estate of Dave Kleiman (Dave Kleiman is another early Bitcoin adopter, one who purportedly mined a stash of coins early on) indicates that the address that sent the 50 coins is owned by Wright — that’s to say that he says he owns those coins.
Notably, the document was filed late last year, meaning that the inclusion of the pertinent address to the list was not something that took place recently.
Critics have tried to disprove the list, saying that while it does look like a collection of addresses that one early Bitcoin adopter owns, it may not be Wright that has or had access to the keys relating to said addresses.
The Adverse Price Impact
While the initial fears that this transaction is related to Satoshi Nakamoto have since subsided, this news event has had an adverse price impact on the cryptocurrency market.
The price of Bitcoin dropped from $9,800 to a low of $9,100 in the two hours after the transaction was sent, though prices have since recovered to the $9,500 range.
The movement of old coins wasn’t the market catalyst that analysts were expecting, but some think it’s the start of a larger reversal.
As reported by Blockonomi previously, crypto derivatives trader Cantering Clark identified three trends transpiring in the Bitcoin market indicative of a short-term top and an imminent reversal:
- Bitcoin’s momentum was slowing, with the price stalling at $9,800
- Open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts has risen while prices have stagnated
- The funding rates of Bitcoin futures markets have trended well into the positive, suggesting the market is overbought.