TLDR
- The crypto market, excluding Bitcoin, has shrunk by 3% in the past week and 10% in the last month, suggesting money is moving away from altcoins.
- Analyst Michael van de Poppe predicts this could be the last correction before new capital re-enters the altcoin market, potentially leading to a 100% rally.
- Altcoin Sherpa outlines two conditions for an “Altcoin Season”: a final capitulation (last shakeout) or a long consolidation period.
- The Altcoin Season Index is currently low at 20 out of 100, with 75 required to signal the start of an altcoin season.
- Analyst Captain Faibik forecasts a significant altcoin surge in Q3 and Q4 of 2024, despite recent 30-40% drops in many altcoins.
The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility in recent months, with altcoins bearing the brunt of the downturn. However, several analysts are now predicting a potential resurgence in the altcoin market, citing historical patterns and market indicators that suggest a turnaround may be on the horizon.
Over the past week, the crypto market, excluding Bitcoin, has contracted by 3%, extending to a 10% decline over the last month. This trend indicates a shift of capital away from altcoins, potentially leading to their devaluation over time. Despite this bearish sentiment, some experts believe that altcoins with strong fundamentals or reduced supply could stage a comeback.
Prominent crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe has shared an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the current market correction could be the final one before fresh capital flows back into the altcoin market.
This chart explains it all. The #Altcoin sentiment is terrible currently, as the BTC valuations of all the altcoins are reaching new lows.
The last time this happened:$SOL went +500%$FET went +650%$RNDR went +300%
This time, altcoins are likely to do the same. pic.twitter.com/KYpzPqwDKV
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 22, 2024
Van de Poppe points to historical examples where altcoins like Solana (SOL), Fetch.ai (FET), and Render Token (RNDR) saw impressive gains of 500%, 650%, and 300% respectively following similar market conditions.
“The altcoin sentiment is terrible currently, as the BTC valuations of all the altcoins are reaching new lows,”
van de Poppe noted. “This time, altcoins are likely to do the same [as in previous rallies].” He anticipates a potential 100% rally in altcoins as the correction nears its conclusion, mirroring Bitcoin’s trajectory.
However, the path to an “Altcoin Season” may not be straightforward.
Another analyst, known as Altcoin Sherpa, outlines two prerequisites for such a rally to materialize. The first is a final capitulation, typically manifesting as a last market shakeout. Alternatively, a prolonged consolidation period could set the stage for an altcoin resurgence.
Personally still of the opinion that alt charts look pretty rekt and I don't see any strong strong moves quite yet.
Sure, we can have a mini alt season but you generally need some sort of catalyst (and healthy btc for that).
That said, there will be bounces for sure. Even alts… pic.twitter.com/BjR0mTyhTb
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) June 20, 2024
The current market dynamics present a challenging environment for altcoins. Bitcoin’s dominance has been on the rise, currently standing at 55.36% of the total crypto market capitalization.
This dominance diminishes the likelihood of immediate, significant altcoin run-ups. The Altcoin Season Index, a metric used to gauge the relative performance of altcoins against Bitcoin, currently sits at a low 20 out of 100. A score of 75 is typically required to signal the start of an altcoin season.
Despite these hurdles, some analysts remain bullish on the long-term prospects of altcoins.
Captain Faibik, another respected voice in the crypto community, forecasts a significant surge in altcoin values during the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Faibik acknowledges the recent 30-40% decline in many altcoins over the past three months but views this correction as a necessary part of the market cycle.
“From October 2023 to March 2024, altcoins performed remarkably well, offering substantial returns to investors,”
Faibik observed. He advises investors to capitalize on the current market dip, suggesting that now is an opportune time to buy and hold for the next 4-6 months.
The altcoin market’s current state of flux is reflected in its declining market dominance, which has fallen to 9.79%, with a total market capitalization of $217.175 billion. While this decline might deter some investors, others see it as a potential buying opportunity before an anticipated rally.
