TLDR:
- Arthur Hayes declares Bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 and calls a rally to $126,000 inevitable.
- Hayes pinpoints February 28, the US-Iran war date, as the official start of the bull market.
- The AI arms race between the US and China is forcing unlimited credit creation in both economies.
- Maelstrom is moving to maximum risk, with NEAR Protocol named as Hayes’ next major investment target.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has declared that Bitcoin has already bottomed at $60,000 and that a rally to $126,000 is inevitable.
In his latest essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” Hayes connects this forecast to the global AI infrastructure buildout, rising military expenditures, and a structural breakdown of dollar-dependent sovereign investment.
He argues that all three forces point to one outcome: more fiat currency, faster, and Bitcoin standing to benefit most.
Hayes Says the Bull Market Started on February 28
Hayes pinpoints the start of the current bull market to a specific date. According to Hayes, the bull market began in earnest when the United States attacked Iran on February 28.
He views that military action as the catalyst that broke the old assumption of Pax Americana protecting global trade routes.
Since that date, Hayes notes that Bitcoin has outperformed every other major risk asset. Gold, the Nasdaq 100, and the IGV US software index have all lagged behind Bitcoin’s post-war performance. He sees this as early confirmation that the market is beginning to price in a new era of fiat credit expansion.
Hayes argues that war is inherently inflationary. The US-Iran conflict, combined with the AI capital expenditure race and the global push toward just-in-case infrastructure, gives politicians and central bankers the political cover they need to allow unchecked credit creation. That credit, Hayes says, will flow into Bitcoin.
He is particularly focused on the $90,000 level as a technical trigger. Once Bitcoin clears that threshold, Hayes expects call option writers to rush to cover their positions.
That forced buying, he argues, will turn what is already a strong rally into something explosive and difficult for sidelined investors to chase.
The AI Arms Race Is Forcing Unlimited Credit Creation
Hayes frames the AI buildout not as a technology story but as a national security imperative. Both Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he argues, have accepted the narrative that whichever nation dominates machine intelligence wins the next era of geopolitical power. That belief removes any political resistance to funding the buildout through money printing.
In the United States, the largest technology companies have funded AI capital expenditure through operating cash flows. However, Hayes notes that the scale of spending now requires the credit channel to open up.
Commercial banks are expected to step in, with political backing, to fund data centers, electricity infrastructure, and compute expansion.
China has taken a more direct approach. Xi has redirected bank lending away from real estate and channeled it into technology.
Hayes sees this as a deliberate policy decision to ensure China does not fall behind in the AI race, regardless of what it costs the banking system in terms of risk exposure.
Hayes introduces two concepts to explain why AI spending will not slow down on its own. Jevons’ Paradox holds that as the cost of intelligence falls, demand for compute rises exponentially.
The Red Queen Effect means that every dollar a company spends on AI is quickly made obsolete by a rival’s newer model, forcing another round of even larger spending. Together, these dynamics create a self-reinforcing loop of credit expansion with no natural ceiling.
Maelstrom Is Going to Maximum Risk as Hayes Eyes NEAR Next
Hayes does not stop at macro analysis. He makes clear that his family office, Maelstrom, is acting on this conviction by moving to maximum portfolio risk.
He states that nothing has changed drastically enough to justify holding back, and he intends to ride the bull market with full exposure until conditions shift materially.
Maelstrom currently holds large positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC). Hayes describes both positions as already large enough that adding more is not the priority. Instead, he has turned his attention to NEAR Protocol as the next major deployment target for the fund.
Hayes says his next essay will lay out the full thesis on NEAR. He connects the protocol to a privacy narrative and a feature called Near intents, which he believes will generate positive cash flow for the protocol.
That cash flow dynamic, he argues, will reverse NEAR’s poor price history and push the token back toward its all-time high.
On the broader market, Hayes keeps his message simple. He calls this a bull market and tells investors to act accordingly.
He acknowledges that US political tensions around AI and inflation ahead of the November midterm elections may cause a brief slowdown, but he does not see that as a reason to reduce exposure now.
