TLDR
- Arthur Hayes said the crypto bull market has resumed and he expects higher prices ahead.
- He predicted that Bitcoin will surge past $90,000 and retake its $126,000 record.
- Bitcoin briefly traded above $82,000 before settling near $80,600 this week.
- Hayes explained that forced buying by call option writers could accelerate gains above $90,000.
- He linked his outlook to credit expansion tied to artificial intelligence investment.
Arthur Hayes said the crypto bull market has resumed, and he has already positioned for further gains. He stated that Bitcoin price will surge past $90,000 and eventually reclaim $126,000. He shared these views in a recent Substack essay while outlining macro drivers and fund holdings.
Bitcoin Price Targets and Market Triggers
Hayes wrote that Bitcoin found a floor at $60,000 earlier this year and has regained upward momentum. He added that reclaiming the October 2025 high of $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion.” He expects the move to accelerate once the Bitcoin price clears $90,000.
He explained that call option writers would need to buy Bitcoin above $90,000 to hedge exposure. He said this forced buying would drive a sharp upward move. Bitcoin briefly traded above $82,000 on Tuesday and later changed hands near $80,600, marking a potential 55% climb to $126,000.
Hayes linked his outlook to two macro forces that he believes will fuel liquidity. He said large software firms can no longer fund artificial intelligence expansion through cash flow alone. He argued that banks and central banks must expand credit to sustain that buildout.
He pointed to the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China easing financial conditions. He said Chinese banks have redirected capital from real estate toward technology projects. He described the combined effect of war spending and technology investment as “higher for longer” inflation.
Altcoin Holdings and Policy Risks
Hayes disclosed that his fund, Maelstrom, holds large positions in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and Zcash’s ZEC. He also identified NEAR as the next target for allocation. He said he will detail the NEAR thesis in a follow-up essay.
He stated that NEAR combines a privacy narrative with an intent-based architecture that can produce positive cash flow. He wrote, “This will flip the script on the disastrous price performance of the token.” He presented the allocation as part of the current bull phase.
Hayes also outlined events that could halt the rally. He warned that a large artificial intelligence IPO or merger could overwhelm market demand. He said such a deal in the United States or China could disrupt speculative momentum.
He added that U.S. politics could shift credit conditions later in the cycle. He said a Democratic challenger in the 2028 presidential race might campaign on limiting artificial intelligence expansion. He argued that such a platform could prompt lenders to reassess credit flows to the sector.
He described the November 2026 mid-term elections as a possible “slight speed bump.” However, he maintained that the current environment favors risk assets. He concluded, “It’s a bull market; close your eyes and press the button,” while stating that the time to sell has not arrived.
