Key Highlights
- 2026 revenue guidance upgraded to €43–€45 billion from the previous €36–€40 billion forecast issued in April
- Second-quarter revenue reached €9.3 billion with gross margin of 54%, exceeding company projections
- Earnings per share of $8.68 per ADR surpassed analyst expectations of $7.92 by approximately 9.6%
- Low-NA EUV production capacity set to grow 30% in 2027, with another potential 30% boost being evaluated for 2028
- Analyst consensus stands at Strong Buy with a $2,421 average target price, suggesting approximately 38.5% potential gain
On July 15, ASML delivered second-quarter financial results that significantly exceeded its own projections, followed by the company’s second upward revision to its 2026 annual forecast.
Revenue climbed to €9.326 billion, representing a 21.2% increase from the prior year’s €7.692 billion. This performance surpassed management’s guidance range of €8.4–€9.0 billion and beat the Wall Street consensus of €8.80 billion.
Net profit totaled €2.918 billion. U.S.-listed shares reported earnings of $8.68 per ADR, beating the $7.92 Street estimate by roughly 9.6%. Shares have climbed approximately 69% since the start of the year and about 145% over the trailing twelve months, currently trading around $1,748.
The standout performer was the Installed Base Management business — encompassing service contracts and equipment upgrades for existing customer systems. This segment generated €2.762 billion in revenue, approximately €300 million above forecasts. The favorable service revenue composition also drove gross margin to 54%, surpassing the 51%–52% guidance range.
System sales totaled €6.6 billion, with €3.8 billion derived from EUV equipment and €2.8 billion from non-EUV products. Logic chips represented 51% of the customer mix while Memory accounted for 49%. ASML also recognized revenue from one High-NA EUV system shipped during the period.
Significant Upward Revision to 2026 Forecast
The company increased its 2026 annual revenue projection to €43–€45 billion with gross margins expected between 54%–56%. This marks a substantial increase from earlier guidance of €36–€40 billion and margins of 51%–53%. The midpoint represents approximately 35% growth versus 2025’s €32.7 billion in sales.
Third-quarter guidance calls for €11–€12 billion in revenue with margins of 55%–57%. Compared to the €9.3 billion just delivered, the midpoint suggests sequential revenue expansion exceeding 20%.
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet noted that order momentum remained “extremely strong” through the first six months, with chipmakers advancing their expansion roadmaps in response to artificial intelligence-driven demand for cutting-edge logic and memory semiconductors.
Manufacturing Expansion Takes Center Stage
ASML intends to boost Low-NA EUV production from approximately 65 units in 2026 to roughly 78–80 units in 2027 — representing a 30% capacity increase. This additional output is nearly fully allocated through existing customer commitments. Strong order visibility for 2028 has prompted management to explore an additional 30% expansion.
Deep ultraviolet immersion system capacity, presently around 130 units annually, is being prepared for similar expansion in 2027 and potentially 2028.
Within the Memory segment specifically, [[LINK_START_3]]ASML[[LINK_END_3]] projects system revenue growth exceeding 75% this year as DRAM manufacturers invest heavily in high-bandwidth memory and next-generation DDR production capabilities.
Intel’s deployment of High-NA EUV technology on specific 18A Panther Lake chip layers represents the commercial rollout of ASML’s newest lithography platform.
Shares currently trade at approximately 40 times the 2026 consensus earnings estimate of $43.34, which represents projected earnings growth of roughly 49% from 2025 levels. Wall Street’s mean price target stands at $2,421.36, supported by eight unanimous Buy recommendations with zero Hold or Sell ratings.
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