AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) vs. Rocket Lab (RKLB): Which Space Stock Offers Better Growth Potential?

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

Rocket Lab generated approximately $200 million in revenue during a single recent quarter, while AST SpaceMobile projects $150–$200 million for the entire 2026 fiscal year
Piper Sandler launched coverage on both companies, assigning AST SpaceMobile an Overweight rating alongside a $100 price target
Analyst Alexander Potter issued a Neutral stance on Rocket Lab with an $83 price objective
AST SpaceMobile holds more than $1 billion in binding agreements with wireless telecommunications providers
Rocket Lab maintains a backlog exceeding $2 billion with a 33% gross margin, whereas AST SpaceMobile reports significantly negative gross margins

Two aerospace-focused equities have captured Wall Street’s focus this week. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab both operate within the space sector, yet they occupy vastly different developmental phases.

Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter launched coverage on both securities Thursday, triggering substantial declines in both stocks. AST SpaceMobile plummeted approximately 18%, while Rocket Lab declined roughly 13%.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

Piper Sandler’s Assessment

Potter assigned AST SpaceMobile an Overweight designation accompanied by a $100 price objective. This valuation suggests approximately 78% appreciation potential from present trading levels. According to Potter, the company demonstrates a more transparent trajectory toward EBITDA expansion compared to competitors and presents a superior risk-reward dynamic.

For Rocket Lab, Potter initiated coverage with a Neutral stance and an $83 price target, indicating roughly 22% upside potential. Potter characterized Rocket Lab as the most credible SpaceX alternative, acknowledging CEO Peter Beck’s success in constructing a vertically integrated enterprise.

Nevertheless, Potter noted that Rocket Lab’s recent stock appreciation has already incorporated substantial positive expectations. He anticipates the company’s valuation multiple will remain closely correlated with SpaceX throughout the coming year.

The Revenue Disparity

The most pronounced distinction between these enterprises centers on a single metric: revenue generation.

Rocket Lab recorded approximately $200 million in quarterly revenue earlier this year, representing growth exceeding 60% year-over-year. Conversely, AST SpaceMobile has provided guidance projecting merely $150–$200 million for the complete 2026 calendar year.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

AST’s latest quarterly revenue totaled approximately $15 million. This represents merely a small fraction of Rocket Lab’s equivalent period performance.

Rocket Lab operates dual revenue channels—launch operations and satellite construction—supported by a backlog surpassing $2 billion. AST SpaceMobile has only recently activated commercial operations following years dedicated to constructing its satellite constellation.

AST SpaceMobile does possess over $1 billion in contractual commitments secured from wireless telecommunications companies. Its business model targets a worldwide consumer marketplace, transmitting broadband connectivity directly to standard mobile devices through satellite infrastructure. Should this approach achieve scale, the revenue opportunity is substantial.

However, achieving scalability remains uncertain. Rocket Lab has demonstrated consistent commercial viability. AST SpaceMobile continues requesting investors place confidence in future demand materialization.

Wall Street’s Broader Perspective

Despite Potter’s inclination toward AST SpaceMobile, the wider analyst community presents a contrasting narrative.

Rocket Lab commands a Strong Buy consensus designation on TipRanks. AST SpaceMobile maintains a Hold consensus. The mean price objective for Rocket Lab stands at $111.40, suggesting approximately 66% appreciation potential. AST SpaceMobile’s average target of $87.80 implies roughly 59% upside.

Neither enterprise has achieved sustained profitability. Both remain firmly within speculative investment territory.

Rocket Lab represents the more established operation currently. AST SpaceMobile carries elevated risk accompanied by a potentially higher reward ceiling should its satellite network perform as projected.

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