TLDR:
- Jiang Zhuoer forecasts a Bitcoin bear market bottom of $42,000–$44,000 in late 2026.
- Strategy’s mNAV has fallen to 0.72, near its May 2022 low of 0.7 seen last cycle.
- A six-month lag between mNAV and BTC bottoms supports a Q4 2026 price floor call.
- Jiang’s mathematical model targets October 31, 2026, as the most precise bottom date.
Bitcoin bear market bottom predictions are gaining attention as Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Chinese miner, forecasts a price floor between $42,000 and $44,000.
The BTC4 pool co-founder expects this bottom to form between October and December 2026. His analysis draws from a four-year cycle model and recent shifts in Strategy’s market sentiment indicator, known as mNAV.
Strategy’s mNAV Signals a Key Turning Point
Strategy’s mNAV has dropped to 0.72, according to Jiang’s analysis. This ratio measures the relationship between Strategy’s stock price and its per-share Bitcoin value.
A reading above 1 reflects optimism among US equity investors, while a reading below 1 points to pessimism. The current level is close to the 0.7 low recorded on May 11, 2022.
Jiang noted in a post on X that recent market events, including the notable decoupling of STRC, suggest mNAV is near its cycle floor.
He wrote that this creates conditions for a long-term arbitrage position—going long on Strategy while shorting BTC. That trade logic rests on the expectation that mNAV will eventually recover as sentiment improves.
However, Jiang was careful to separate the mNAV bottom from the BTC price bottom. In the previous cycle, mNAV bottomed in May 2022 when BTC traded around $31,000.
Bitcoin then reached its actual low of $15,476 roughly six months later in November 2022. At that point, mNAV had actually recovered to around 1.2.
This six-month lag between the mNAV floor and the BTC price floor is central to his current forecast. If the same pattern holds, a mNAV bottom now would place the BTC price bottom in the final quarter of 2026.
A Mathematical Model Behind the $44,000 Target
Jiang’s price model is built on a concept of diminishing volatility. He compared Bitcoin’s price cycles to a ball bouncing on the ground, with each bounce losing amplitude over time. As BTC’s total market capitalization grows, he argues, its percentage swings naturally compress across cycles.
Using this framework, his model targets October 31, 2026, as the most likely bottom date, with a projected price of $44,016.
He extended the range to $42,000–$44,000 to account for timing uncertainty, giving a window of October through December 2026.
Jiang added that his model carries stronger predictive power for timing than for the exact price level. He acknowledged that coin price predictions carry more uncertainty than cycle timing estimates. His recent trading activity has involved selling spot holdings to establish short positions.
He concluded by stating his intention to shift to buying spot BTC once the bear market bottom is confirmed.
