TLDR
- BTC declined 1.5% to $83,416 on Monday as a worldwide bond market selloff intensified.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surged above 5%, reaching their highest point in 17 years.
- Geopolitical risk escalated after President Trump dismissed Iran’s ceasefire proposal.
- The probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October now stands at 70.3%, rising from 57.7% a week ago.
- Despite the dip, BTC has gained over 40% in Q3, marking its strongest third quarter since 2017.
Bitcoin retreated 1.5% on Monday, sliding to $83,416 as market participants reduced exposure to risk-sensitive investments. The downturn came after a robust two-week advance fueled by expectations of more favorable cryptocurrency regulations in the United States.
The selloff extended beyond Bitcoin alone. Alternative cryptocurrencies including Ethereum, Cardano, XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana similarly surrendered portions of their recent advances.
Sovereign debt yields climbed substantially throughout developed markets. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the 5% threshold for the first time since 2007, while Japanese government bond yields reached three-decade peaks.
Elevated yields enhance the appeal of government securities relative to higher-risk investments such as digital currencies. Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan implemented rate increases in September while indicating additional tightening may be necessary.
Middle East Tensions Support Energy Prices and Inflation Concerns
Escalating crude oil costs linked to U.S.-Iran hostilities have contributed significantly to inflationary pressures throughout the year. During the weekend, President Trump refused to exclude additional military operations against Iran following his rejection of Tehran’s proposed ceasefire agreement.
Crude oil markets reacted by advancing toward $95 per barrel, gaining 3% on Monday. Hamad Hussain, a commodities economist at Capital Economics, informed Reuters that supply disruption concerns continue to dominate despite improvements in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ongoing clashes between Yemen’s Houthi militants and Saudi Arabia provided additional upward momentum to oil markets. Analyst Ali Charts examined the technical landscape, noting that Bitcoin had completed a double bottom formation and was now retesting the $82,000 neckline support, suggesting that maintaining this threshold could present a favorable entry point ahead of a potential advance toward $100,000.
Notwithstanding Monday’s decline, Bitcoin has surged more than 40% during the third quarter. This represents its most impressive Q3 performance since 2017, substantially exceeding the average third-quarter increase of 8.6% recorded since 2013.
Bitcoin additionally achieved its highest weekly closing price since late January at $84,450 before declining to one-week lows around $82,557. Limited order book depth contributed to volatility, with approximately $30 million in sell orders concentrated near the $85,700 level on Monday.
October Rate Hike Probability Increases Before Critical Economic Releases
Financial markets are currently assigning a 70.3% probability to a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate increase in October, climbing from 57.7% one week prior. The August PCE inflation data, which represents the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, will be released Wednesday with expectations for 3.6% year-over-year growth.
September’s employment situation report is scheduled for Friday. August’s jobs figure significantly exceeded projections at 162,000, while consensus estimates for September stand at 83,000.
Trader Rekt Capital identified $82,500 as a critical threshold Bitcoin must defend. He drew parallels to the 2022 bear market recovery phase, when Bitcoin established a foundation above comparable support before initiating its subsequent rally.
Rekt Capital stated that successfully holding $82,500 would validate an inverse head-and-shoulders formation on the weekly timeframe. He noted that failure to maintain this level could result in Bitcoin retreating into the $60,000 to $80,000 trading range.
Above current market prices, the 2026 yearly opening level resides at $88,700, while the average purchase price for spot Bitcoin ETF investors approximates $86,000. Below the market, corporate treasury Bitcoin holders carry an average cost basis near $80,500.
