The bitcoin price has powered to its highest level in 2023, briefly topping $44k this week as part of a blistering 40% rally over the last month. But after scraping right up against major long-term resistance, the question now is whether bitcoin has enough momentum for a final push up to $50k or if it’s due for a temporary pullback first.
- Bitcoin price reached new 2022 high of $44,490 on Dec 5, now hovering near $44k
- Price hasn’t closed above the long-term resistance zone between $40k to $47k yet
- Weekly RSI supports ongoing rally but some analysts warn correction could be due
- Most likely Elliott Wave price target is $47,600 for top of current wave before pullback
- Upside momentum continuing towards $50k but failure to hold above $43k could trigger a drop
Bitcoin mounted the startling comeback from lows near $30k back in October, confounding bears and fueling hopes that the crypto winter may finally be thawing. The largest cryptocurrency got a series of boosts from positive fundamental developments, including resilience in the face of the FTX debacle, rumors of major institutional investors wading back in, and increasing anticipation of an SEC approval for a spot bitcoin ETF.
The confluence of bullish factors restored the animal spirits that had been sorely missing during the long months of pessimism and capitulation. Bitcoin powered decisively through its 50-day moving average in late November and hasn’t looked back since, tacking on nearly 50% gains heading into the new year.
This week, BTC price crossed above the midpoint of a long-term weekly supply zone ranging from $40k to just under $47k that has kept a lid on upside moves over the past year. Typically breaking a supply barrier open like this fuels further momentum. However, the price hasn’t officially closed above this band yet.
The weekly relative strength index is still ascending and remains highly elevated near 80, signaling strong upside energy still in play. But some analysts caution bitcoin is extremely overbought on shorter timeframes and the rocket-ride rally may be disintegrating.
Elliott Wave analysis suggests the most probable peak for the current wave is around $47,600 before a corrective pullback kicks in. However, other expert traders point to frothy options positioning hinting bitcoin could surge towards $50k before running out of buyers.
Of course predicting the next move is tricky. Bitcoin has been left for dead more than once before only to catch fire unexpectedly and go on a parabolic run. While risks remain until BTC confirms closure above the stubborn multi-year supply zone, momentum definitely favors the bulls to press for $50k over the near-term.