The flagship cryptocurrency is trading at $26,800 at the time of writing, up 2.73% in the past 24 hours. The rally comes after a stagnant week in which Bitcoin fell from above $27,200. Despite the rebound, the bulls may struggle to regain momentum ahead of the Fed’s speech and Celsius refund.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, Jerome Powell, will host a keynote speech with a number of speakers, including the Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook. Community’s eyes are set on the remarks of Powell as these can indicate the Fed’s approaches to the broader economy and monetary policies.
The Fed’s Speech on Thursday
The upcoming event may impact the crypto market, but many believe that price movements will be muted, particularly when recent Fed news has shown little impacts on the crypto market.
After the Fed’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on August 25, the price of Bitcoin was down slightly following the event.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price remained unmoved before and after the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, in which the central bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. This is the first time since March 2022 that the Fed has not raised rates.
The Fed’s decision came as a surprise to some analysts, who had expected the central bank to continue raising rates in an effort to combat inflation. However, the Fed may have been hesitant to raise rates too quickly, given the ongoing economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s muted reaction to the Fed’s decision suggests that the cryptocurrency market may be becoming more desensitized to changes in interest rates. This could be due to a number of factors, including the increasing maturity of the cryptocurrency market and the growing adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value.
The Fed will have two more opportunities to raise interest rates in 2023, in early November and mid-December. Financial analysts expect at least one more hike before the end of the year, which could have a greater impact on Bitcoin’s price.
Celsius to Repay Creditors
Apart from the Fed’s speech, Celsius’ coming repayment is another move in focus. Previously, the majority of creditors impacted by the bankruptcy proceedings of Celsius Network voted in favor of a restructuring plan.
The proposed plan entails the distribution of billions in cryptocurrency. Stretto, the appointed bankruptcy service provider, reported that 98% of creditors approved the plan by the due date on September 22.
According to the ratified plan, Celsius Network’s creditors will receive approximately $2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum, in addition to equity stakes in a newly established entity under the management of the Fahrenheit Group. Notably, the Fahrenheit Group is a consortium of Arrington Capital and US Bitcoin Corp, a mining company, and had successfully acquired Celsius Network in May 2023.
The allocation of such a substantial cryptocurrency sum could potentially exert influence on the cryptocurrency market, impacting investor sentiment and potentially inducing market fluctuations.
The next pivotal phase is the review and final decision of the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, with a formal hearing scheduled for October 2. Bulls and bears are at odds as the market remains uncertain. According to data from CryptoQuant,
Bitcoin’s spot exchange trading volumes are at a five-year low. The analysis suggests that investors are becoming more interested in holding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for the long term, rather than trying to make quick profits by trading them frequently.
This isn’t 1981 and Powell isn’t Volcker. We are reminded of Ahab chasing Moby Dick, but this time, the ship is the Western monetary system, and billions of people are held in the balance. If we had to guess, the next crisis will be a liquidity crisis, and the US treasury market will fracture.