Since last week’s rally from the low-$7,000s to $9,500, Bitcoin has managed to hold surprisingly well, trading in the high-$8,000s for the past four days now.
It’s this strength that has convinced many analysts that the cryptocurrency is trading in a clear uptrend, ready to rally past $10,000 in the weeks ahead.
Technicals Trends Signal More Bitcoin Upside
Last week, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flipped bullish on Bitcoin’s one-week chart, suggesting a medium-term bull rally ahead.
The MACD is described as an indicator revealing ”changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend.”
In 2017, the indicator flipped green at $2,000 to mark the start of a 1,000% rally to $20,000. At the start of 2019, Bitcoin rallied 300% when the indicator trended green in January. And just recently, it flipped green prior to BTC rallying from $8,000 to $10,500.
On-Chain Metrics Are Trending Bullish
Adding to the positive technicals, the on-chain metrics of Bitcoin have indicated market participants are bullish.
According to data shared by blockchain analytics company Glassnode, Bitcoin’s hash rate just yesterday hit a new all-time high at just shy of 150 exahashes per second — 150 with 18 zeroes after it hashes every second.
— glassnode (@glassnode) May 3, 2020
Adding to this, the analytics company also observed that their “Glassnode On-Chain BTC Index,” or GNI. The GNI is derived from a number of indicators such as network growth, Bitcoin transactions, and investor sentiment in an aim to “yield insights” into “where Bitcoin may evolve.”
Glassnode found that by charting Bitcoin’s current GNI and its performance, it has been “moving strongly towards the bullish quadrant,” which suggests a bull trend.
Watch Out for a Stock Downturn
Despite these tailwinds, Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market will be negatively impacted by a downturn in the stock market, which BTC is positively correlated with during periods of economic “stress” according to the Federal Reserve branch of Kansas City.
Analysts are currently charting such a downturn. According to a report from Bloomberg, technical strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co believe that the S&P 500 is currently forming a medium-term price ceiling around 2,940 points:
The S&P 500 Index staged a bearish reversal week after moving deeper into the large confluence of resistance levels surrounding 2,900. While the two-day pullback from that key resistance area is only tentative at this point, it at least marks a continuation of the trend deceleration pattern that started in mid-April.
Goldman Sachs has echoed this outlook. Per previous reports from Blockonomi, analysts at that other multinational bank believe that with large-cap stocks, like Microsoft and Amazon, outperforming smaller-cap companies as of late, the chance at a downturn have increased:
Sharp declines in market breadth in the past have often signaled large market drawdowns. Narrow breadth can last for extended periods, but past episodes have signaled below-average market returns and eventual momentum reversals.