TLDR:
- LTH realized price sits near $49,500, STH realized price near $72,500 currently
- STH cost basis falling below LTH cost basis historically signals extended bear phases
- Crypto Lens views recent $66,000 rally as a bull trap within bearish cycle
- Scenarios point toward $48,000, $43,000, or $32,000 over coming months
Bitcoin remains trapped near $63,780, as on-chain data points to a familiar pattern from past bear markets. Long-term holder cost basis sits around $49,500, while short-term holders carry a $72,500 average. History shows these two lines tend to converge before any bear market truly ends.
LTH-STH Spread Signals More Pain Ahead
On-chain analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s cyclical structure has not been invalidated, despite repeated doubts.
He pointed out that every previous bear market eventually placed long-term holders under heavy pressure. This pressure typically shows up as a falling realized price gap.
The current gap between LTH and STH realized prices remains wide. LTHs hold their coins at an average of $49,500, reflecting strong conviction built during accumulation phases.
Short-term holders, by contrast, sit at a much higher $72,500, representing recent buyers facing unrealized losses.
Darkfost explained that in every past cycle, the STH cost basis eventually dropped below the LTH cost basis. This crossover marked a turning point, followed by extended bearish phases lasting several months. The market has not yet reached that crossover during this cycle.
If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could face a prolonged period of consolidation or further downside. Darkfost suggested that the bear market may still have considerable time left to run. Traders watching realized price metrics may find this gap a useful guide.
Bull Trap Theory Points To Lower Targets
A separate analysis from Crypto Lens introduced a more bearish near-term outlook for Bitcoin. The analyst argued that the recent rally to $66,000 represented a bull trap within a longer bearish structure. According to this view, the market sits exactly halfway through its current bear cycle.
Crypto Lens outlined a sequence of potential price levels following the rejection near $66,000. The path described moves from $63,000 to $66,000, then toward $53,000 and $48,000. Further declines could extend toward $43,000 and eventually $32,000 under this scenario.
Three possible outcomes were presented for the coming months. The first scenario points to a drop toward $48,000 within days of the current setup. The second suggests a slower decline toward $43,000 by August, aligning with broader bearish sentiment.
The third and most extreme scenario projects Bitcoin falling to $32,000 by September. Crypto Lens referenced past calls, including predictions near the $16,000 bottom and the $126,000 top in October. These references were used to support confidence in the new projections.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded at $63,781.20, up 0.53% over the past day as of this writing. The asset has gained 5.00% over the past week, with trading volume reaching $23.5 billion.
Despite this short-term strength, both analyses suggest caution remains warranted heading into the second half of the year.
