TLDR
- Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin is still following its historical four-year cycle.
- Cowen argued that Bitcoin has not reached its final market bottom yet.
- Bitcoin’s rebound to $82,800 stalled near the 200-day simple moving average.
- Cowen compared the latest rejection with similar patterns seen in 2018 and 2022.
- Analyst Sykodelic expects Bitcoin to rally above $90,000 in June.
Bitcoin has remained within its historical four-year cycle, according to Into The Cryptoverse founder and CEO Benjamin Cowen, who says the latest rebound has not confirmed a market bottom.
Cowen said in a recent post on X that Bitcoin’s current structure still fits the cycle pattern that has guided previous bull and bear market phases. He argued that Bitcoin respected the four-year cycle during its October 2025 peak near $126,200, so traders should not assume the bottom will break from the same timeline.
The analyst said past Bitcoin bear markets ended late in midterm years, including November 2022 and December 2018. Based on that comparison, Cowen maintained that the latest decline has not reached its final low.
His comments came after Bitcoin recovered to a multi-month high of $82,800. While some traders viewed the move as evidence that selling pressure had eased, Cowen treated the rebound as another part of the same cycle.
Cowen Says Bitcoin Has Not Reached Its Final Low
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s market cycle peak and bottom return-on-investment charts continue to follow earlier patterns. He said the bottom ROI has stayed close to prior cycle behavior, even though Bitcoin has not delivered the same size of gains seen in older cycles.
Cowen also said Bitcoin’s ROI from the previous cycle peak has held up better than in some past bear markets. However, he added that the chart still shows similar behavior to previous cycle declines.
In his view, the latest rally did not weaken the bear-market case. Cowen said Bitcoin’s move to $82,800 stopped near the 200-day simple moving average in early May. He compared that level with similar rejections in 2018 and 2022, which came before Bitcoin made another downward move.
The analyst also pushed back against claims that the current consolidation has lasted too long for another decline to follow. Cowen said previous countertrend rallies continued for more than 20 weeks, while the latest one has lasted about 16 weeks.
With those comparisons, Cowen said there is still enough evidence to support the four-year cycle view. He expects Bitcoin to remain under pressure until later in the year, based on the timing of prior market bottoms.
Analysts Split Over Bitcoin’s Next Move
In an earlier analysis, Cowen said Bitcoin’s next leg lower could begin this month and continue into June. He projected that the move could take Bitcoin below its February 6 low of $60,000 before the market forms a stronger base.
Several market analysts have treated the February 6 level as the cycle bottom, but Cowen disagreed with that view. He said Bitcoin’s historical cycle timing leaves room for another decline before the final low appears.
Meanwhile, analyst Sykodelic offered a different outlook. Sykodelic said Bitcoin could rally in June and move above $90,000 after retesting its break-of-structure level.
The split leaves traders watching whether Bitcoin can move past the 200-day simple moving average with strength. For Cowen, failure at that level keeps the historical-cycle argument alive. For analysts with a bullish outlook, a June move above $90,000 would challenge his bearish timeline.
