TLDR:
- Bitcoin has printed three consecutive ATHs in 2024–2025, each accompanied by a lower STH MVRV peak.
- A descending MVRV trendline has connected three structural peaks with precision since March 2024.
- Reclaiming the STH Realized Price would shift short-term holders from loss to a profit-dominated state.
- MVRV must stabilize above 1.0 alongside a Realized Price reclaim to confirm a structural regime change.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder MVRV is approaching a structural test that analysts say could define the next directional move.
Three consecutive all-time highs have each printed a lower MVRV peak, forming a descending trendline with notable precision.
How price behaves at this level may determine whether recent buyers shift from loss to profit. The outcome could reshape positioning across the broader market.
Three ATH Peaks, Three Lower MVRV Readings
A clear pattern has emerged across this cycle’s most notable price peaks. In mid-March 2024, Bitcoin reached a then-record near $72,000. At that point, the STH MVRV climbed above 1.4, reflecting strong short-term holder profitability.
The second peak came in late November 2024, when Bitcoin pushed toward $106,000. However, the MVRV reached a lower high than before, a classic bearish divergence between price and underlying sentiment.
Then, in July 2025, Bitcoin printed another record near $120,000. Again, the MVRV peaked lower, extending the descending trendline for a third consecutive time. Each new high came with weakening conviction among recent buyers.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ noted that the trendline connecting these three peaks has held with remarkable precision. This pattern points to a gradual erosion of short-term holder confidence across the cycle.
What a Trendline Reclaim Would Mean for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is now compressing back toward that descending trendline. This move, if completed, would align with a potential reclaim of the STH Realized Price. That level represents the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders.
A price move back above the Realized Price would shift the cohort from a loss-dominated to a profit-dominated state. That shift matters because holders sitting in profit are generally less likely to sell into weakness.
As MorenoDV_ wrote via @cryptoquant_com: “A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” Removing that overhead supply pressure could open the path toward stronger upside momentum.
Until both conditions are met simultaneously, the trendline functions as resistance, not support. Analysts recommend tracking the Realized Price reclaim and MVRV stability together before making aggressive upside bets.
