One week ago today, many investors thought Bitcoin was on its way to $0; last Thursday and Friday, the cryptocurrency fell by over 50% within a 24-hour time span, crashing from $7,700 to $3,800 amid a global meltdown in all markets that saw the American stock market register one of its worst days. Ever.
Many branded this correlated move in equities, Bitcoin, commodities, and even gold a “liquidity crisis,” whereas all investors run to the door with whatever asset they have to get cash, presumably to accumulate at lower prices or to pay for day-to-day items in these trying times.
But, as equities struggled further over the past few days, Bitcoin has rallied. In fact, early Friday morning, the cryptocurrency hit a high of $6,900, marking a jaw-dropping 80% rally since the $3,800 bottom.
A majority of this rally took place over the past three days, as prior to this period, BTC had settled in at $5,400.
With this move, BTC is now easily outperforming the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices on the year, show the resilience of this market in the face of crisis.
Here’s what analysts think is next for Bitcoin.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
Although the move over the past week has been decisive, not everyone is convinced the cryptocurrency is ready to enter back into a bull trend.
According to Bloomberg, market research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors wrote in a recent note that Bitcoin’s price action remains “badly compromised” after the notable drop last week, setting the stage for a longer-term bear trend.
Notably, this compromising of bullish structures took place across all asset classes, the firm wrote. Technical strategist Rob Sluymer explained the concept further:
The crypto breakdown over the past week mirrored the ‘get me out of everything’ panic that dominated all asset classes, whether they were defensive or not. Lower highs and lower lows are in place for Bitcoin, leaving in a compromised, potentially vulnerable longer-term profile.
The analyst — who called Bitcoin’s 2019 breakout — explained further that even if the bottom is in, it will take “months of consolidation to repair the technical damage now in place.”
This was echoed to a T by Vijay Ayyar of crypto exchange Luno, who told Bloomberg that there’s a good likelihood BTC ranges between the key $6,500 resistance and the $3,000 support (that marked 2018’s bottom) before a bull cycle resumes.
Fundamental Trend Decisively Positive
Whatever the case, Bitcoin’s fundamental trends continue to only skew positive, analysts have said. Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise Asset Management, recently shared a few:
- Bitcoin has started to decouple from traditional markets, proving that it may act as a safe haven in the ongoing crisis.
- 72% of Coinbase clients are buying BTC, per data from the company itself.
- The Bitcoin block reward halving is 50 days away.
- Billions of dollars may return “when levered longs return.”
- Central banks have printed trillions worth of dollars to stimulate the economy, setting the stage for inflation that may benefit cryptocurrency.
HUGELY bullish dynamics for Bitcoin right now:
– BTC flat during HISTORIC risk-off days in markets.
– 72% on Coinbase buying.
– The Halvening is 50 days away.
– Billions in buys coming when levered longs return.
– And if 1% of >$2T+ of stimulus finds its way to Bitcoin…
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) March 18, 2020
That’s not all. As reported in Blockonomi’s Thursday market update, Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs exec and an early believer in Bitcoin (2012), believes that what we are witnessing with the coronavirus outbreak and the subsequent economic impact is a potential collapse of the “entire system.”
This will leave a power vacuum that he has said in interviews is most likely to be filled by a digital and decentralized system that will be lead by players like Bitcoin and Ethereum.