TLDR:
- Jiang Zhuoer says he is 90% confident the crypto bear market has ended after Bitcoin neared $79,500.
- He bought ETH near $2,100 after selling at 1,738-1,931, then sold half his spot position near $2,525.
- Jiang keeps 20%-30% of planned capital undeployed, with an ETH buy possible if BTC falls to 67,000-72,000.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $1.6 billion through Thursday, including $606.3 million in Thursday inflows.
Chinese mining veteran Jiang Zhuoer has abandoned his bearish call of 2026 after the market’s latest rebound undermined his forecast. The BTC.TOP founder now says he is about 90% confident the bear market has ended, while viewing Ethereum as a relative outperformer.
The reversal followed trades reflecting his bearish thesis breakdown. He previously sold ETH between $1,738 and $1,931, then bought back near $2,100 after deciding his view was failing.
Jiang Zhuoer Reverses Bearish Bitcoin Call as ETH Strengthens
In late June, Jiang forecast that Bitcoin could fall toward $42,000 to $44,000 during the fourth quarter. His projection partly relied on Strategy’s depressed market-to-Bitcoin valuation and historical cycle timing.
That scenario weakened sharply when the cryptocurrency surged toward 79,500 on August 21. Ether also recovered into the mid-2,000 range, reducing his conviction that major downside remained. His repositioning did not end with the buyback.
He later sold half of his spot Ether near $2,525 and referenced a stop around $2,550. The sequence showed that his change in outlook was accompanied by position management. Rather than holding to the previous cycle call, he adjusted exposure as prices challenged it.
Wu Blockchain’s translation said Jiang still has about 20% to 30% of his intended capital undeployed. He plans another ETH purchase if the flagship cryptocurrency retreats into the $67,000 to $72,000 range.
If that decline does not occur, the report said Jiang intends to deploy the remaining funds by late October. However, Odaily described the reserve-capital plan as a purchase of the leading cryptocurrency instead. While the translation creates uncertainty over the intended asset, it does not alter the broader shift from Jiang’s earlier bearish outlook.
ETH Outperformance and ETF Inflows Support Market Rebound
That change in outlook has also placed Ethereum at the center of Jiang’s revised positioning, particularly after ETH outperformed the market leader during the latest rebound. Bernstein analysts linked Ether’s relative strength to growing activity around stablecoins, tokenization, and real-world assets.
At the same time, the broader recovery received support from spot demand rather than relying solely on forced liquidations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.6 billion through Thursday, including $606.3 million on Thursday alone.
Improving liquidity conditions also provided a supportive backdrop. Expanded U.S. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated debt coincided with fresh crypto-policy developments as digital assets accelerated from recent lows.
However, leverage remained an important driver of the initial breakout. More than $2.75 billion in short positions tied to the market leader were liquidated on August 19.
Those liquidations helped accelerate the move above $70,000, showing that forced short covering contributed significantly to the rebound. Even so, substantial ETF inflows during the same week pointed to additional spot-market demand.
Against that backdrop, Jiang’s reversal shows how quickly a fixed cycle forecast can weaken when market structure changes. His stated 90% confidence, however, remains a personal assessment rather than an independently verified probability.
His trading response also emphasized execution over certainty. Jiang reduced exposure, bought back after reassessing market conditions, and kept part of his capital available for another entry.
For traders, the clearest confirmation would come from sustained ETH relative strength, durable spot demand, continued ETF inflows, and liquidity remaining firm after short-covering pressure fades.
