Key Takeaways
- Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Circle with a $140 price target, representing approximately 59% potential gain from the $87.98 closing price
- USDC’s circulating supply increased by $1.7 billion within one week following nearly half a year of stagnant growth
- The analyst firm believes Circle’s expansion trajectory remains independent of whether the CLARITY Act receives Congressional approval in September
- Stablecoin transaction volume, when adjusted for market-making activity, reached a $17 trillion annualized run rate as of July 2026
- Circle’s Agent Stack platform now supports over 900 paid services, with USDC accounting for 99.3% of x402 agent payment settlement volume
Bernstein analysts continue to back Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with an Outperform rating and $140 price objective, maintaining their bullish stance despite ongoing questions surrounding the CLARITY Act’s legislative fate. This valuation suggests approximately 59% appreciation potential from Circle’s latest closing price of $87.98. During current trading sessions, CRCL shares were changing hands at $89.20, reflecting a gain of roughly 1.4%.
According to the research report dated August 24 and authored by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Circle’s business momentum doesn’t rely on whether lawmakers approve the proposed U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation in September.
The company delivered second-quarter revenue of $701 million, representing a 7% increase compared to the prior year period, though falling marginally short of Wall Street projections. Circle reported net income of $48 million alongside earnings per share of $0.18, surpassing analyst consensus estimates.
USDC Circulation Expands Following Extended Plateau
Following an extended period of approximately six months with minimal change, USDC’s total supply expanded by approximately $1.7 billion within just seven days. Bernstein interprets this development as evidence that user adoption has regained momentum.
The research firm calculates that USDC powers roughly 80% of decentralized exchange trading activity and DeFi transaction volumes. When filtering out automated trading bots and high-frequency transactions, adjusted stablecoin payment volume reached approximately $11 trillion during 2025 and tracked toward a $17 trillion annualized rate through July 2026. This marks an increase of about 60% year-over-year.
Circle secured authorization from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency this past July to create Circle National Trust, operating as a federally supervised national trust bank. This development may ultimately position USDC reserve holdings under federal regulatory oversight.
Standard Chartered introduced direct USDC creation and redemption capabilities for its institutional client base. An additional integration with Fireblocks enables institutions to administer USDC holdings and channel payments into local currencies via Circle’s Payments Network, which achieved $14.7 billion in annualized transaction throughput at the conclusion of Q2.
AI Agent Payments Create New Growth Opportunity for USDC
Bernstein highlighted machine-to-machine payment infrastructure as an emerging component of USDC’s growth narrative. Circle introduced Agent Stack in May, providing software agents with capabilities to maintain asset balances and execute programmable transactions.
By the second quarter, Agent Stack had attracted more than 900 paid service integrations, with USDC capturing 99.3% of all x402 agent payment settlement activity. Independent research from Keyrock documented AI agents processing $73 million across 176 million separate transactions during a 12-month period, with USDC facilitating 98.6% of those payment flows.
Regarding regulatory developments, Bernstein suggested that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass on September 15, the SEC and CFTC would likely issue regulatory guidance rather than creating operational obstacles for Circle.
On the competitive landscape, Mizuho downgraded Circle to Underperform during July with a $50 price objective, expressing concerns about profit margin compression from Open USD’s collaborative framework. Circle President Heath Tarbert countered these concerns by emphasizing USDC’s superior liquidity position and established integration ecosystem.
Circle’s partnership pipeline continues expanding. Its collaboration with Japan’s JCB explores potential USDC applications in corporate treasury operations and merchant payment systems. Strategic relationships with Kakao and Toss are investigating stablecoin deployment opportunities in South Korea. USDC also joined BNY’s Digital Asset Custody platform this past June.
Bernstein’s prior price target for Circle stood at $190.
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