TLDR
- Dogecoin experienced a price crash after April’s upward movement
- Crypto analyst Astronomer suggests DOGE may have bottomed, similar to October 2024 before its 500% rally
- DOGE is currently trading below $0.1750 level with resistance near $0.1740
- A bullish divergence pattern shows potential for reversal
- Whale accumulation detected with 100 million DOGE ($17.5 million) added to holdings
Dogecoin, the popular meme cryptocurrency, has experienced a fresh decline after showing promising upward movement in April. The price failed to break through the $0.1880 zone and subsequently dropped below several support levels, testing the $0.1680 zone with a low of $0.1685. This downturn has pushed investor sentiment back into fear territory.
Despite the current bearish trend, some analysts believe this might only be a temporary setback. Crypto analyst Astronomer has suggested that Dogecoin may have reached a bottom after being rejected from $0.18.
The analyst points out similarities between current market conditions and those in October 2024, which preceded a 500% rally to a local peak of $0.5. Based on these fundamentals, Astronomer predicts that DOGE could potentially rally even higher this time.
Technical indicators show a bullish divergence on the chart, particularly in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This suggests a potential reversal pattern may be forming.
For a bullish continuation, DOGE needs to break above the $0.1780 resistance level. This could potentially send the price toward $0.1850 and eventually to the $0.1880 level. If momentum continues, the next major target would be the $0.2 mark.
Whale Activity Signals Potential Strength
Recent blockchain data reveals some interesting movements among large holders. A total of 100 million DOGE tokens (worth approximately $17.5 million) were added to whale holdings, indicating possible accumulation by major investors.
This accumulation is supported by increased exchange outflows, suggesting large withdrawals from trading platforms. Such behavior typically signals investors moving coins to private wallets for longer-term holding rather than immediate trading.
However, not all metrics paint a bullish picture. Trading volume has decreased by 33.5% over the past 24 hours, though this could be attributed to typical weekend trading patterns.
Looking at the supply distribution, wallets holding between 100-1 million DOGE showed selling pressure in early April, while the 1 million-10 million and 100 million-1 billion DOGE holder groups have shown some buying activity.
Another altcoin that bottomed IMO (Early call), I'm long
Alright $DOGE only moved slightly off the low, so there still is a 6R+ trade to be scored if it were to go to the highs.
Regardless, I called the $BTC bottom early, and am willing to do the same with one of my… https://t.co/CH2icaIfnn pic.twitter.com/4XgF9AWyq9
— Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) May 4, 2025
The market capitalization has grown from $21 billion to $26.4 billion since April 6th. Interestingly, the realized cap (representing the value of all coins valued at the last price they moved on-chain) has shrunk from $21.5 billion to $21.3 billion during the same period.
This discrepancy between market cap and realized cap suggests that some of the past month’s gains may be driven by speculative activity rather than fundamental value growth.
On the downside, if Dogecoin fails to climb above the $0.1740 level, it could face another decline. Initial support is near $0.1685, with major support at $0.1600. A break below this support could potentially send the price toward $0.1550 or even $0.1450.
Daily Active Addresses remain at just 3.4% of what they were during the November peak, indicating subdued market sentiment and activity compared to previous highs.
While long-term holders appear to be holding steady rather than selling, increased buying pressure and activity will be necessary for DOGE to launch a substantial rally. Until these metrics improve, the meme coin may continue to experience price volatility in the near term.
The first major target for a potential recovery would be breaking the resistance at $0.2, followed by $0.27, with a final target for a 100% increase lying above $0.33.
