TLDR:
- Bitcoin long-term holder aNUPL has turned negative as BTC trades near 50% below its cycle high.
- Long-term holders now carry deeper unrealized losses than the broader Bitcoin market average currently.
- Past cycle bottoms saw far deeper long-term holder losses than the levels recorded today.
- Institutional demand could help Bitcoin bottom earlier this cycle without a full capitulation event.
Bitcoin is displaying several signals that analysts have historically linked to major cycle bottoms, raising the question of whether a turning point is forming.
New on-chain research from CryptoQuant points to unusual stress among long-term holders, a group typically known for strong conviction.
Bitcoin currently trades near $63,833, down slightly over the past day and week. Whether this marks a genuine bottom remains uncertain for now.
What the Data Reveals About Long-Term Holders
Analyst MorenoDV_, writing for CryptoQuant, examined the adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric across different holder groups.
The findings show long-term holders’ losses have moved past the speculative edge of the market. This cohort now carries deeper unrealized losses than the broader market average, a pattern rarely seen outside major downturns.
At previous cycle lows, long-term holders consistently absorbed greater unrealized stress than short-term participants.
The current market structure appears to follow that same historical pattern closely. Long-term holder aNUPL has dropped below the broader market average and turned negative.
This shift comes as Bitcoin trades roughly 50% under its previous cycle high. According to the research, long-term capital is being tested in ways beyond a routine price correction.
Still, the depth of these losses has not matched prior bottom formations. Earlier cycle lows produced much deeper and more sustained negative readings among long-term holders.
Current losses, while genuine, have not reached the extreme levels seen in past downturns. This distinction raises doubt over whether the bottom question can be answered yet.
The metric therefore points to an ongoing bottoming process rather than a confirmed low.
Two outcomes remain possible based on how this stress develops from current levels. Each scenario would carry a different answer to whether Bitcoin has truly bottomed.
Two Scenarios That Could Answer the Bottom Question
One possibility is that the market requires another capitulation phase to complete the pattern. This would push long-term holder losses toward the extremes recorded during previous historical bottoms.
Such a move would likely coincide with renewed price weakness and a wave of loss realization among holders.
That combination has defined capitulation events throughout Bitcoin’s trading history.
A second scenario points toward a shallower bottom than previous cycles produced. Stronger institutional demand and a more resilient holder base could absorb selling pressure earlier than before.
If this occurs, Bitcoin could stabilize without long-term holder losses reaching historical extremes. History offers a reference range for this pattern, not a fixed requirement.
What happens next carries more weight than the current on-chain snapshot alone. A further decline in long-term holder aNUPL, paired with fresh price weakness, would resemble classic capitulation. That combination has preceded major reversals across multiple previous market cycles.
A recovery toward neutral readings while Bitcoin holds a higher low would suggest a different outcome. That pattern would indicate long-term holder stress has already peaked.
Losses would then be gradually absorbed rather than intensifying, offering a partial answer to the bottom question.
