Key Takeaways
- Shares of Micron declined 5.25% on Monday following weekend statements from tech leaders at Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX advocating for slower AI advancement
- James Schneider from Goldman Sachs anticipates Micron will report “another strong quarter” with fiscal Q4 2026 revenue reaching $51.9 billion
- Analysts on Wall Street forecast Q4 FY26 earnings per share of $31.14, a dramatic increase from $3.03 in the prior year period, alongside revenue growth exceeding 345%
- According to UBS research, approximately 90% of the estimated $1 trillion AI infrastructure investment planned from 2025 through 2027 will target memory solutions
- The Street maintains a Strong Buy rating on MU shares with a consensus target price of $1,563.93, suggesting 69% potential appreciation
Shares of Micron tumbled 5.25% to approximately $930.90 during Monday’s trading session, extending the previous week’s weakness and erasing the entirety of September’s advances. The downturn followed weekend remarks from executives at Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX advocating for a deceleration in artificial intelligence development.
Competitor SK Hynix ADRs experienced a steeper 6.9% decline amid identical concerns.
The recent pullback hasn’t dampened optimism from Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider, who maintains a positive stance heading into Micron’s fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings announcement on September 30. He anticipates the semiconductor manufacturer will deliver “another strong quarter,” pointing to persistent supply-demand constraints in the memory market.
Schneider has revised his financial projections upward before the earnings release. His updated forecast calls for Q4 FY26 revenue of $51.9 billion—approximately 3% higher than consensus estimates—accompanied by earnings per share of $32.54 and gross margin reaching 87.3%.
The consensus estimate among Wall Street analysts for Q4 FY26 earnings per share sits at $31.14, representing a substantial leap from the $3.03 reported in the comparable quarter last year. Revenue projections indicate an explosive surge exceeding 345% to $50.42 billion, fueled by artificial intelligence infrastructure demand and elevated memory chip prices.
Goldman Sachs’ Focus Areas
According to Schneider, market participants are monitoring two critical factors: whether Micron can sustain or expand its approximate 20% market position in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technology, and if the company will unveil additional strategic customer partnerships featuring advantageous pricing structures.
The analyst’s calendar year 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts exceed Street expectations by 1% and 3%, respectively. His projection anticipates Micron will provide guidance indicating low-teens sequential revenue expansion for fiscal Q1 2027.
While optimistic about near-term performance, Schneider maintains a Hold recommendation on MU shares with a $1,100 price objective, characterizing the risk-reward scenario as balanced. He also highlighted extended-term risks stemming from capacity expansion by competitors, especially those based in China.
Understanding Monday’s Selloff
The trigger for Monday’s market pressure emerged from coordinated AI safety commentary. Leadership from Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX issued weekend statements advocating for a temporary pause or moderation in artificial intelligence development initiatives.
For Micron in particular, any indication of diminished AI infrastructure investment poses a significant concern. UBS research suggests that roughly 90% of the anticipated $1 trillion expansion in AI capital expenditures projected from 2025 to 2027 is designated for memory components.
UBS economist Arend Kapyteyn projects AI capital spending will approach $1 trillion this year before climbing to approximately $1.4 trillion by 2027, with memory-related expenses claiming an increasingly larger portion.
Nevertheless, no prominent AI organization has implemented actual reductions in capital investment plans. The Trump administration continues supporting data center construction initiatives, and Anthropic is reportedly advancing IPO preparations potentially valuing the company at $2 trillion.
Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments, revealed she capitalized on the price decline to increase her Micron holdings, emphasizing that the data center construction pipeline remains solidly intact.
MU shares have surged 224% year-to-date and have multiplied more than six times in value during the trailing twelve-month period.
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