Nebius (NBIS) Stock Surges 7% on BNP Paribas Upgrade to Outperform

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Shares of Nebius Group surged up to 7% Thursday, reaching $241.20, following a BNP Paribas Exane upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.
The investment firm increased its price target to $399 from $260, suggesting significant potential upside from the previous day’s closing price.
The analyst upgrade comes on the heels of Nebius announcing a 17% to 25% increase in GPU and CPU cloud pricing effective October 1.
Second-quarter revenue surged 454% year-over-year to $582.3 million, surpassing Wall Street expectations.
NBIS shares rallied even as major indices including the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones posted losses Thursday.

Nebius Group shares advanced as much as 7% during Thursday’s session, peaking at $241.20 after the opening bell at $231.84. The rally followed BNP Paribas Exane’s decision to elevate the AI infrastructure provider from Neutral to Outperform.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Alongside the rating upgrade, the investment firm elevated its price target to $399 from a previous $260. This updated target suggests approximately 76% potential upside based on Wednesday’s closing price of $226.61.

The bullish stance from BNP Paribas Exane introduces another optimistic perspective on Nebius amid a divided Wall Street opinion. Currently, the consensus recommendation stands at “Moderate Buy,” with analysts projecting an average price target of $241.80.

What’s Driving Analyst Optimism

The timing of the upgrade coincides with Nebius’s announcement to increase pricing for its on-demand GPU cloud offerings beginning October 1. The price adjustments affect Nvidia H100, H200, B200, and B300 instances, with increases ranging from approximately 17% to 21%.

Additionally, AMD EPYC Genoa CPU pricing will see increases around 25%. Market observers interpret these hikes as evidence of constrained AI computing capacity rather than a revenue strategy, particularly since this marks the second pricing increase in recent months.

Nebius delivered Q2 AI cloud revenue of $574.9 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin approaching 50%. Total quarterly revenue reached $582.3 million, representing a 454% year-over-year increase and exceeding analyst projections of $567.91 million.

The company recorded a loss of $0.12 per share, significantly better than the consensus forecast of a $0.67 loss. This contrasts with earnings of $2.38 per share during the comparable period last year.

The stock’s ascent occurred while broader markets declined. The Nasdaq decreased 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Dow Jones slipped 0.4%, indicating NBIS’s performance was propelled purely by company-specific developments.

Competing neocloud providers such as CoreWeave and IREN have faced headwinds in recent trading sessions amid GPU pricing concerns. This backdrop made Nebius’s Thursday advance particularly notable relative to industry peers.

Skeptics Remain in the Picture

BNP Paribas Exane’s optimism isn’t universally shared among analysts. Rothschild Redburn recently launched coverage with a Sell rating, highlighting declining GPU rental rates and intensifying competition from hyperscale cloud providers as key risks.

Prominent investor Michael Burry has also revealed increased short exposure to Nebius and similar AI-focused companies. His concerns center on negative free cash flow generation, substantial capital requirements, and customer concentration risks.

Company insiders have offloaded approximately $43.6 million in Nebius shares during the past 90 days. Among these transactions, CRO Marc Boroditsky divested 7,000 shares on September 14 at an average execution price of $209.08.

Director John Wilson Iv Boynton similarly sold 5,296 shares on August 14 at an average price of $270.99. Both transactions occurred under predetermined Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements.

Nebius maintains a market capitalization of $60.69 billion and exhibits a beta of 4.23, underscoring its significant volatility. The stock’s 50-day moving average stands at $213.92, while the 200-day average registers at $193.97.

The current share price remains notably below the 52-week peak of $299.86. Institutional ownership accounts for approximately 21.90% of outstanding shares.

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