Key Takeaways
- Wall Street analysts anticipate prediction market volumes will surge to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, climbing from $51 billion in 2025
- Polymarket and Kalshi have already processed $60 billion in trading volume during 2026 to date
- Sports betting currently commands 62% of market share, though analysts expect crypto and macroeconomic contracts to dominate future growth
- Sector revenues projected to skyrocket from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by decade’s end
- Robinhood and Coinbase identified as primary distribution channels, with analyst price targets set at $130 and $330 respectively
Investment firm Bernstein has released a comprehensive analysis forecasting that prediction market trading volumes will climb to approximately $1 trillion by the end of this decade. This represents a dramatic expansion from the $51 billion in volume recorded during 2025.
Analysts anticipate trading volumes will reach approximately $240 billion in 2026 alone. This trajectory suggests an impressive 80% compound annual growth rate extending through 2030.
Leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have already processed a combined $60 billion in trading activity during 2026 to date. This rapid growth demonstrates the sector is significantly outpacing initial industry projections.
The research team, headed by analyst Gautam Chhugani at Bernstein, identifies two critical catalysts fueling this expansion. First, improved regulatory clarity at the federal government level is providing confidence to market participants. Second, blockchain-based infrastructure enables worldwide access and rapid deployment of new event-based contracts.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has claimed exclusive regulatory authority over prediction markets and is actively developing comprehensive rulebooks as the industry continues expanding.
Sports-related contracts currently represent approximately 62% of total prediction market trading volume. Competitive fee structures compared to conventional sportsbooks have accelerated adoption in this category.
Beyond Sports: The Next Phase of Growth
Analysts project sports betting’s dominance will decline to roughly 31% of total volume by 2030. Cryptocurrency-related contracts, alongside macroeconomic, political, and business event markets, are expected to capture the majority of future activity.
Researchers anticipate institutional participants will increasingly engage with economics, business, and political event contracts. Corporations and insurance providers may leverage these platforms to hedge against specific event-driven risks.
Regarding revenue generation, the prediction market industry generated approximately $400 million during 2025. Bernstein’s analysis suggests this figure will climb to $2.5 billion in 2026, ultimately reaching $10.8 billion by 2030.
Polymarket has transitioned away from its previous zero-fee business model and is currently generating an annualized revenue rate of $420 million.
Robinhood and Coinbase Positioned for Dominance
Robinhood has established a $350 million annualized revenue stream from prediction markets just 12 months after launching its Kalshi-integrated platform. The company is simultaneously developing proprietary exchange infrastructure to reduce third-party dependencies.
Coinbase entered the prediction market space through a strategic partnership with Kalshi, providing its customer base with access to over 1,000 different event contracts across the United States.
Bernstein maintains outperform ratings on both companies. The firm has established a $130 price target for Robinhood shares, representing approximately 81% potential upside from Monday’s closing price. The $330 target for Coinbase suggests roughly 89% appreciation potential.
Analysts observe that Robinhood’s stock price has already declined approximately 50% since late 2025. The research team believes disappointing first-quarter performance is already reflected in current valuations, with trading activity expected to rebound during the second quarter.
Bernstein projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenues will expand from approximately $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. The firm highlights the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted in the United States and upcoming midterm elections as significant near-term volume catalysts.
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